Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq

Ambitious plans for the decarbonization of the global energy system necessitate the scaling up of renewable energy exploitation. This could render the energy supply system more susceptible to the effects of climate change as most renewables are climate-dependent by nature. Therefore, understanding the consequences of climate change on renewable energy systems at a regional level plays an important role in the financial management, process optimization, and energy yield assessment of these systems. In this work, the key objective is to examine the projected impacts of surface insolation and temperature fluctuations on the future photovoltaic (PV) energy potentials in Iraq. Projections are quantified across two climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which represent the intermediate and worst-case scenarios in which insolation will rise by 4.5 and 8.5 W/m2 by the beginning of the next century. The results show that the average temperature across the country is anticipated to rise by 1.5 °C and 2.4 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The results also show that the change in solar PV potential relative to current climatic conditions, would be −0.3 to 8.1% under RCP4.5 while it is −5.1 to 6.3% under RCP8.5 by the beginning of the next century. The highest potentials are predicted in the western parts, and the greatest drops are in the southeastern parts. Temporal stability of PV potentials also appears to be little affected by future climatic scenarios, with some southern parts even indicating a little positive rise. So, even though climate change is expected to cause small drops in PV output in some areas, it is unlikely to pose a danger under RCP4.5 to PV productivity in Iraq.