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Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output

Author

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  • Sarah Feron

    (Universidad de Santiago de Chile
    Stanford University)

  • Raúl R. Cordero

    (Universidad de Santiago de Chile)

  • Alessandro Damiani

    (Chiba University)

  • Robert B. Jackson

    (Stanford University
    Stanford University)

Abstract

Sustainable development requires climate change mitigation and thereby a fast energy transition to renewables. However, climate change may affect renewable power outputs by enhancing the weather variability and making extreme conditions more frequent. High temperature or clouds, for example, can lead to poorer photovoltaic (PV) power outputs. Here, we assess global changes in the frequency of warm and cloudy conditions that lead to very low PV power outputs. Using simulations from global climate models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we show that summer days with very low PV power outputs are expected to double in the Arabian Peninsula by mid-century but could be reduced by half in southern Europe over the same period, even under a moderate-emission scenario. Changes for winter, either enhancing or mitigating the PV power intermittency, are projected to be less striking, at least in low- and mid-latitude regions. Our results present valuable information for energy planners to compensate for the effects of future weather variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Feron & Raúl R. Cordero & Alessandro Damiani & Robert B. Jackson, 2021. "Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 270-276, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:4:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41893-020-00643-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-00643-w
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Naiqing & Li, Longhao & Zhang, Fan & Jiao, Ticao & Wang, Shuang & Liu, Xuefeng & Wu, Xinghua, 2023. "Research on short-term photovoltaic power prediction based on multi-scale similar days and ESN-KELM dual core prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    2. Jiang, Hou & Lu, Ning & Yao, Ling & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang, 2023. "Impact of climate changes on the stability of solar energy: Evidence from observations and reanalysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 726-736.
    3. Ghanim, Marrwa S. & Farhan, Ammar A., 2023. "Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 338-346.
    4. Dongsheng Zheng & Dan Tong & Steven J. Davis & Yue Qin & Yang Liu & Ruochong Xu & Jin Yang & Xizhe Yan & Guannan Geng & Huizheng Che & Qiang Zhang, 2024. "Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Laibao Liu & Gang He & Mengxi Wu & Gang Liu & Haoran Zhang & Ying Chen & Jiashu Shen & Shuangcheng Li, 2023. "Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 870-880, August.
    6. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. van der Most, L. & van der Wiel, K. & Benders, R.M.J. & Gerbens-Leenes, P.W. & Kerkmans, P. & Bintanja, R., 2022. "Extreme events in the European renewable power system: Validation of a modeling framework to estimate renewable electricity production and demand from meteorological data," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Mladen Bošnjaković & Marinko Stojkov & Marko Katinić & Ivica Lacković, 2023. "Effects of Extreme Weather Conditions on PV Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Jiang, Hou & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Zhang, Xiaotong & Liu, Tang & Zhang, Xingxing & Zhou, Chenghu, 2024. "Exploring the optimization of rooftop photovoltaic scale and spatial layout under curtailment constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    10. Wu, Thomas & Hu, Ruifeng & Zhu, Hongyu & Jiang, Meihui & Lv, Kunye & Dong, Yunxuan & Zhang, Dongdong, 2024. "Combined IXGBoost-KELM short-term photovoltaic power prediction model based on multidimensional similar day clustering and dual decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Judy P. Che-Castaldo & Rémi Cousin & Stefani Daryanto & Grace Deng & Mei-Ling E. Feng & Rajesh K. Gupta & Dezhi Hong & Ryan M. McGranaghan & Olukunle O. Owolabi & Tianyi Qu & Wei Ren & Toryn L. J. Sch, 2021. "Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 594-615, December.
    12. Jiang, Hou & Zhang, Xiaotong & Yao, Ling & Lu, Ning & Qin, Jun & Liu, Tang & Zhou, Chenghu, 2023. "High-resolution analysis of rooftop photovoltaic potential based on hourly generation simulations and load profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).

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