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Investigation of the Near Future Solar Energy Changes Using a Regional Climate Model over Istanbul, Türkiye

Author

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  • Yusuf Duran

    (Environmental Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, Yildiz Technical University, Davutpaşa-Esenler, 34220 Istanbul, Türkiye
    Istanbul Enerji AŞ, İstanbul Dünya Ticaret Merkezi, Bakırköy, 34149 Istanbul, Türkiye)

  • Elif Yavuz

    (Environmental Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, Yildiz Technical University, Davutpaşa-Esenler, 34220 Istanbul, Türkiye)

  • Bestami Özkaya

    (Environmental Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, Yildiz Technical University, Davutpaşa-Esenler, 34220 Istanbul, Türkiye)

  • Yüksel Yalçin

    (Istanbul Enerji AŞ, İstanbul Dünya Ticaret Merkezi, Bakırköy, 34149 Istanbul, Türkiye)

  • Çağatay Variş

    (Istanbul Enerji AŞ, İstanbul Dünya Ticaret Merkezi, Bakırköy, 34149 Istanbul, Türkiye)

  • S. Levent Kuzu

    (Environmental Engineering Department, Civil Engineering Faculty, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469 Istanbul, Türkiye)

Abstract

This study aims to assess potential changes in radiation values at the solar power plant facility in Istanbul using the RegCM. This analysis seeks to estimate the extent of the solar radiation changes and evaluate the production capacity of solar power in Istanbul in the future. The research involved installing an off-grid rooftop solar energy system. Meteorological parameters (temperature, etc.) and the system’s outputs were monitored to evaluate the energy production and its relationship with these parameters. The performance of the Regional Climate Model version 5.0 (RegCMv5) in accurately representing surface solar radiation and temperature patterns was assessed by comparing it with measured monocrystalline solar panel output data. The impact of different cumulus convection schemes was examined on the sensitivity of the RegCM by analyzing surface solar radiation data over the initial three months. Long-term simulations were conducted with the representational concentration path (RCP) scenarios of 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 spanning from 2023 to 2050 with convection schemes yielding the best results. All scenarios project a slight decrease in incoming surface radiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Duran & Elif Yavuz & Bestami Özkaya & Yüksel Yalçin & Çağatay Variş & S. Levent Kuzu, 2024. "Investigation of the Near Future Solar Energy Changes Using a Regional Climate Model over Istanbul, Türkiye," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-16, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:11:p:2644-:d:1405121
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghanim, Marrwa S. & Farhan, Ammar A., 2023. "Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 338-346.
    2. Dutta, Riya & Chanda, Kironmala & Maity, Rajib, 2022. "Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 819-829.
    3. Aissatou Ndiaye & Mounkaila Saley Moussa & Cheikh Dione & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Jan Bliefernicht & Laouali Dungall & Harald Kunstmann, 2022. "Projected Changes in Solar PV and Wind Energy Potential over West Africa: An Analysis of CORDEX-CORE Simulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-22, December.
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