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The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil

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  • Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe
  • Avila-Diaz, Alvaro
  • Justino, Flavio B.
  • Martins, Fernando Ramos
  • Ceron, Wilmar L.

Abstract

Photovoltaic power potential (PPV) is part of the strategies in Brazil to satisfy the population's energy demand and contribute to reduction of global warming in the climate change context. This study assesses climate change's impact on PPV using a set of 47 state of the art Earth System Models from CMIP6 under two climate change (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Changes in solar radiation, temperature and PPV are calculated for the near-term (2021–2050) and end-century (2071–2100) future, concerning the historical period (1981–2010). For the future, the sign of climate change is consistent in both scenarios, but with more intense magnitudes in the SSP5-8.5 for the end-century, and indicate a brightening in North region and warming in the whole country. For the near-term future, PPV projects the maximum increases (≈3%) in the North under both scenarios. The most notable decreases in PPV are noticed by the end-century (−5%) over the country, except for the extreme north. The sensitivity to the increase in temperature of current PPV systems' technology would not allow increases in the yield of PPV, canceling the positive effect of the brightening.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe & Avila-Diaz, Alvaro & Justino, Flavio B. & Martins, Fernando Ramos & Ceron, Wilmar L., 2022. "The climate change perspective of photovoltaic power potential in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 1019-1031.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:193:y:2022:i:c:p:1019-1031
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.029
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    2. Isaza, Alejandra & Kay, Merlinde & Evans, Jason P. & Prasad, Abhnil & Bremner, Stephen, 2023. "Maximizing photovoltaic potential and minimizing costs in a future warmer climate: The role of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gas emissions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    3. Ghanim, Marrwa S. & Farhan, Ammar A., 2023. "Projected patterns of climate change impact on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of Iraq," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 338-346.
    4. Wati, Elvis & Meukam, Pierre, 2024. "Impact of the climate change on the site suitability for solar farms: Case study of Cameroon," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Elkholy, M.H. & Senjyu, Tomonobu & Elymany, Mahmoud & Gamil, Mahmoud M. & Talaat, M. & Masrur, Hasan & Ueda, Soichiro & Lotfy, Mohammed Elsayed, 2024. "Optimal resilient operation and sustainable power management within an autonomous residential microgrid using African vultures optimization algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    6. Chen, Xie & Zhou, Chaohui & Tian, Zhiyong & Mao, Hongzhi & Luo, Yongqiang & Sun, Deyu & Fan, Jianhua & Jiang, Liguang & Deng, Jie & Rosen, Marc A., 2023. "Different photovoltaic power potential variations in East and West China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).

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