IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v241y2024ics0951832023005732.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causal discovery and reasoning for geotechnical risk analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Wenli
  • Liu, Fenghua
  • Fang, Weili
  • Love, Peter E.D.

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI), such as machine learning (ML) models, is profoundly impacting an organization's ability to assess safety risks during the construction of tunnels. Yet, ML models are black boxes and suffer from interpretability and transparency issues – they are unexplainable. Hence the motivation of this paper is to address the following research question: How can we effextively explain data-driven ML model's predicitve assessment of geotechnical risks in tunnel construction? We draw on the concept of ‘eXplainable AI’ (XAI) and utilize causal discovery and reasoning to help analyze and interpret the manifestation of geotechnical risks in tunnel construction by developing: (1) a sparse nonparametric and nonlinear directed acyclic diagram (DAG) used to determine the causal structure of risks between sub-systems; (2) a multiple linear regression model, which we use to estimate the effect of the causal relationships between sub-systems; and (3) a probability-based reasoning model to quantify and reason about risk. We use the San-yang Road tunnel project in Wuhan (China) to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of our proposed approach. The results indicate that our approach can accurately explain what and how risks are obtained from a data-driven probability-based ML model for ground settlement in tunnel construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Wenli & Liu, Fenghua & Fang, Weili & Love, Peter E.D., 2024. "Causal discovery and reasoning for geotechnical risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023005732
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023005732
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109659?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Xianguo & Liu, Huitao & Zhang, Limao & Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. & Deng, Qianli & Teng, Jiaying, 2015. "A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 157-168.
    2. Qu, Pengfei & Zhang, Limao & Zhu, Qizhi & Wu, Maozhi, 2023. "Probabilistic reliability assessment of twin tunnels considering fluid–solid coupling with physics-guided machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Liu, Lu & Song, Xiao & Zhou, Zhetao, 2022. "Aircraft engine remaining useful life estimation via a double attention-based data-driven architecture," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Wang, Chu & Dou, Manfeng & Li, Zhongliang & Outbib, Rachid & Zhao, Dongdong & Zuo, Jian & Wang, Yuanlin & Liang, Bin & Wang, Peng, 2023. "Data-driven prognostics based on time-frequency analysis and symbolic recurrent neural network for fuel cells under dynamic load," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    5. Moradi, Ramin & Cofre-Martel, Sergio & Lopez Droguett, Enrique & Modarres, Mohammad & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Integration of deep learning and Bayesian networks for condition and operation risk monitoring of complex engineering systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    6. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    7. Zhao, Yang & Li, Tingting & Zhang, Xuejun & Zhang, Chaobo, 2019. "Artificial intelligence-based fault detection and diagnosis methods for building energy systems: Advantages, challenges and the future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 85-101.
    8. Ali Behravan & Bahareh Kiamanesh & Roman Obermaisser, 2021. "Fault Diagnosis of DCV and Heating Systems Based on Causal Relation in Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks Using Relation Direction Probabilities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-47, October.
    9. Lin, Penghui & Zhang, Limao & Tiong, Robert L.K., 2023. "Multi-objective robust optimization for enhanced safety in large-diameter tunnel construction with interactive and explainable AI," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Wang, Zhanwei & Wang, Zhiwei & He, Suowei & Gu, Xiaowei & Yan, Zeng Feng, 2017. "Fault detection and diagnosis of chillers using Bayesian network merged distance rejection and multi-source non-sensor information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 200-214.
    11. He, Jingran & Gao, Ruofan & Chen, Jianbing, 2022. "A sparse data-driven stochastic damage model for seismic reliability assessment of reinforced concrete structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    12. Liu, Wenli & Li, Ang & Fang, Weili & Love, Peter E.D. & Hartmann, Timo & Luo, Hanbin, 2023. "A hybrid data-driven model for geotechnical reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kamei, Sayaka & Taghipour, Sharareh, 2023. "A comparison study of centralized and decentralized federated learning approaches utilizing the transformer architecture for estimating remaining useful life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Chen, Jianli & Zhang, Liang & Li, Yanfei & Shi, Yifu & Gao, Xinghua & Hu, Yuqing, 2022. "A review of computing-based automated fault detection and diagnosis of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Oh, ChoHwan & Lee, Jeong Ik, 2020. "Real time nuclear power plant operating state cognitive algorithm development using dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Mathpati, Yogesh Chandrakant & More, Kalpesh Sanjay & Tripura, Tapas & Nayek, Rajdip & Chakraborty, Souvik, 2023. "MAntRA: A framework for model agnostic reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    5. Li, Bingxu & Cheng, Fanyong & Zhang, Xin & Cui, Can & Cai, Wenjian, 2021. "A novel semi-supervised data-driven method for chiller fault diagnosis with unlabeled data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Wang, Fanyi & Ma, Wanying & Mirza, Nawazish & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2023. "Green financing, financial uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and oil prices volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Chen, Zhelun & O’Neill, Zheng & Wen, Jin & Pradhan, Ojas & Yang, Tao & Lu, Xing & Lin, Guanjing & Miyata, Shohei & Lee, Seungjae & Shen, Chou & Chiosa, Roberto & Piscitelli, Marco Savino & Capozzoli, , 2023. "A review of data-driven fault detection and diagnostics for building HVAC systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    8. Zhang, Hao & Cai, Guixin & Yang, Dongxiao, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks on clean energy stocks: Fresh evidence from multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Muhammad Haseeb & Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Nira Hariyatie Hartani, 2019. "The Impact of Renewable Energy on Economic Well-Being of Malaysia: Fresh Evidence from Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Bound Testing Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 269-275.
    10. Antonio Rosato & Francesco Guarino & Mohammad El Youssef & Alfonso Capozzoli & Massimiliano Masullo & Luigi Maffei, 2022. "Faulty Operation of Coils’ and Humidifier Valves in a Typical Air-Handling Unit: Experimental Impact Assessment of Indoor Comfort and Patterns of Operating Parameters under Mediterranean Climatic Cond," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-38, September.
    11. Shariq, M. Hasan & Hughes, Ben Richard, 2020. "Revolutionising building inspection techniques to meet large-scale energy demands: A review of the state-of-the-art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Soytas, Ugur & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2020. "Financial development and energy consumption in emerging markets: Smooth structural shifts and causal linkages," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Ahmed Ali & Granberg Mark & Uddin Gazi Salah & Troster Victor, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 155-172, February.
    14. Ibrahim, Muhammad Sohail & Dong, Wei & Yang, Qiang, 2020. "Machine learning driven smart electric power systems: Current trends and new perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    15. Mighri, Zouheir & Ragoubi, Hanen & Sarwar, Suleman & Wang, Yihan, 2022. "Quantile Granger causality between US stock market indices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    16. Zuo, Jian & Cadet, Catherine & Li, Zhongliang & Bérenguer, Christophe & Outbib, Rachid, 2024. "A deterioration-aware energy management strategy for the lifetime improvement of a multi-stack fuel cell system subject to a random dynamic load," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Yu, Shui & Wang, Zhonglai & Zhang, Kewang, 2018. "Sequential time-dependent reliability analysis for the lower extremity exoskeleton under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 45-52.
    18. Zhu, Xu & Zhang, Shuai & Jin, Xinqiao & Du, Zhimin, 2020. "Deep learning based reference model for operational risk evaluation of screw chillers for energy efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    19. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    20. Vladimir Franki & Darin Majnarić & Alfredo Višković, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Companies in the Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:241:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023005732. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.