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Scenario mapping for critical infrastructure failure under typhoon rainfall: A dependency and causality approach

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  • Shen, Yang
  • Yang, Zhen
  • Guo, Li
  • Zhao, Xiaozhe
  • Duan, Yao

Abstract

The critical infrastructure system exhibits a high degree of instability because of the frequent occurrence of extreme natural disasters. This study proposes a method for exploring the cascading failures of critical infrastructure systems under such impacts, based on dependency relationships for importance analysis and probability assessment. With this method, a cascading failure scenario graph of critical infrastructure is established and empirical research is conducted using typhoon rainfall events as a case study. The main contributions of this study are summarized as follows: it proposes a method for the causal identification of the interrelationships among critical infrastructures; it sorts and evaluates the importance and cascading failure probability of critical infrastructure by using the Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) and Rank-order Centroid method (ROC); and it generates scenario graphs of critical infrastructure cascading failures to visualize event states, environmental characteristics, and evolutionary paths. This study provides a new method and tool for disaster risk management of complex systems involved in critical infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Yang & Yang, Zhen & Guo, Li & Zhao, Xiaozhe & Duan, Yao, 2024. "Scenario mapping for critical infrastructure failure under typhoon rainfall: A dependency and causality approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:249:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002667
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110193
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