IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v234y2023ics095183202300114x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic predictive maintenance for multiple components using data-driven probabilistic RUL prognostics: The case of turbofan engines

Author

Listed:
  • Mitici, Mihaela
  • de Pater, Ingeborg
  • Barros, Anne
  • Zeng, Zhiguo

Abstract

The increasing availability of condition-monitoring data for components/systems has incentivized the development of data-driven Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prognostics in the past years. However, most studies focus on point RUL prognostics, with limited insights into the uncertainty associated with these estimates. This limits the applicability of such RUL prognostics to maintenance planning, which is per definition a stochastic problem. In this paper, we therefore develop probabilistic RUL prognostics using Convolutional Neural Networks. These prognostics are further integrated into maintenance planning, both for single and multiple components. We illustrate our approach for aircraft turbofan engines. The results show that the optimal replacement time for the engines is close to the lower bound of the 99% confidence interval of the RUL estimates. We also show that our proposed maintenance approach leads to a cost reduction of 53% compared to a traditional Time-based maintenance strategy. Moreover, compared with the ideal case when the true RUL is known in advance (perfect RUL prognostics), our approach leads to a limited number of failures. Overall, this paper proposes an end-to-end framework for data-driven predictive maintenance for multiple components, and showcases the potential benefits of data-driven predictive maintenance on cost and reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitici, Mihaela & de Pater, Ingeborg & Barros, Anne & Zeng, Zhiguo, 2023. "Dynamic predictive maintenance for multiple components using data-driven probabilistic RUL prognostics: The case of turbofan engines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:234:y:2023:i:c:s095183202300114x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202300114X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109199?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David M. Blei & Alp Kucukelbir & Jon D. McAuliffe, 2017. "Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 859-877, April.
    2. Lee, Juseong & Mitici, Mihaela, 2020. "An integrated assessment of safety and efficiency of aircraft maintenance strategies using agent-based modelling and stochastic Petri nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Caballé, N.C. & Castro, I.T. & Pérez, C.J. & Lanza-Gutiérrez, J.M., 2015. "A condition-based maintenance of a dependent degradation-threshold-shock model in a system with multiple degradation processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 98-109.
    4. Alaswad, Suzan & Xiang, Yisha, 2017. "A review on condition-based maintenance optimization models for stochastically deteriorating system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 54-63.
    5. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    6. Shi, Yue & Zhu, Weihang & Xiang, Yisha & Feng, Qianmei, 2020. "Condition-based maintenance optimization for multi-component systems subject to a system reliability requirement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Hu, Yang & Miao, Xuewen & Si, Yong & Pan, Ershun & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Prognostics and health management: A review from the perspectives of design, development and decision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Li, Xiang & Ding, Qian & Sun, Jian-Qiao, 2018. "Remaining useful life estimation in prognostics using deep convolution neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1-11.
    9. Andriotis, C.P. & Papakonstantinou, K.G., 2019. "Managing engineering systems with large state and action spaces through deep reinforcement learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Victor Emmanuell BADEA & Alin ZAMFIROIU & Radu BONCEA, 2018. "Big Data in the Aerospace Industry," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 22(1), pages 17-24.
    11. Nguyen, Khanh T.P. & Medjaher, Kamal, 2019. "A new dynamic predictive maintenance framework using deep learning for failure prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 251-262.
    12. Li, Tianfu & Zhao, Zhibin & Sun, Chuang & Yan, Ruqiang & Chen, Xuefeng, 2021. "Hierarchical attention graph convolutional network to fuse multi-sensor signals for remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Van Horenbeek, Adriaan & Pintelon, Liliane, 2013. "A dynamic predictive maintenance policy for complex multi-component systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 39-50.
    14. Do, Phuc & Assaf, Roy & Scarf, Phil & Iung, Benoit, 2019. "Modelling and application of condition-based maintenance for a two-component system with stochastic and economic dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 86-97.
    15. Olde Keizer, Minou C.A. & Flapper, Simme Douwe P. & Teunter, Ruud H., 2017. "Condition-based maintenance policies for systems with multiple dependent components: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 405-420.
    16. de Pater, Ingeborg & Reijns, Arthur & Mitici, Mihaela, 2022. "Alarm-based predictive maintenance scheduling for aircraft engines with imperfect Remaining Useful Life prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    17. de Pater, Ingeborg & Mitici, Mihaela, 2021. "Predictive maintenance for multi-component systems of repairables with Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics and a limited stock of spare components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keshun, You & Guangqi, Qiu & Yingkui, Gu, 2024. "Optimizing prior distribution parameters for probabilistic prediction of remaining useful life using deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Li, Xiao Yan & Cheng, De Jun & Fang, Xi Feng & Zhang, Chun Yan & Wang, Yu Feng, 2024. "A novel data augmentation strategy for aeroengine multitask prognosis based on degradation behavior extrapolation and diversity-usability trade-off," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    3. Yang, Jing & Wang, Xiaomin, 2024. "Meta-learning with deep flow kernel network for few shot cross-domain remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Mandelli, Diego & Wang, Congjian & Agarwal, Vivek & Lin, Linyu & Manjunatha, Koushik A., 2024. "Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    5. Crespo del Castillo, Adolfo & Parlikad, Ajith Kumar, 2024. "Dynamic fleet management: Integrating predictive and preventive maintenance with operation workload balance to minimise cost," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    6. Kamariotis, Antonios & Tatsis, Konstantinos & Chatzi, Eleni & Goebel, Kai & Straub, Daniel, 2024. "A metric for assessing and optimizing data-driven prognostic algorithms for predictive maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Juseong & Mitici, Mihaela, 2023. "Deep reinforcement learning for predictive aircraft maintenance using probabilistic Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    2. de Pater, Ingeborg & Mitici, Mihaela, 2021. "Predictive maintenance for multi-component systems of repairables with Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics and a limited stock of spare components," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    3. de Pater, Ingeborg & Reijns, Arthur & Mitici, Mihaela, 2022. "Alarm-based predictive maintenance scheduling for aircraft engines with imperfect Remaining Useful Life prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Wang, Yukun & Li, Xiaopeng & Chen, Junyan & Liu, Yiliu, 2022. "A condition-based maintenance policy for multi-component systems subject to stochastic and economic dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Zhang, Nan & Cai, Kaiquan & Zhang, Jun & Wang, Tian, 2022. "A condition-based maintenance policy considering failure dependence and imperfect inspection for a two-component system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Kamariotis, Antonios & Tatsis, Konstantinos & Chatzi, Eleni & Goebel, Kai & Straub, Daniel, 2024. "A metric for assessing and optimizing data-driven prognostic algorithms for predictive maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. Wang, Yukun & Gao, Weizheng & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2024. "Joint optimization of performance-based contracting, condition-based maintenance and spare parts inventory for degrading production systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    8. Lee, Juseong & Mitici, Mihaela, 2022. "Multi-objective design of aircraft maintenance using Gaussian process learning and adaptive sampling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    9. Zhang, Nailong & Si, Wujun, 2020. "Deep reinforcement learning for condition-based maintenance planning of multi-component systems under dependent competing risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Zhang, Qin & Liu, Yu & Xiahou, Tangfan & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2023. "A heuristic maintenance scheduling framework for a military aircraft fleet under limited maintenance capacities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    11. Luo, Yi & Zhao, Xiujie & Liu, Bin & He, Shuguang, 2024. "Condition-based maintenance policy for systems under dynamic environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    12. de Jonge, Bram & Scarf, Philip A., 2020. "A review on maintenance optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 805-824.
    13. Zhuang, Liangliang & Xu, Ancha & Wang, Xiao-Lin, 2023. "A prognostic driven predictive maintenance framework based on Bayesian deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    14. Pinciroli, Luca & Baraldi, Piero & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Maintenance optimization in industry 4.0," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Pedersen, Tom Ivar & Vatn, Jørn, 2022. "Optimizing a condition-based maintenance policy by taking the preferences of a risk-averse decision maker into account," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Shahil Kumar & Krish Kumar Raj & Maurizio Cirrincione & Giansalvo Cirrincione & Vincenzo Franzitta & Rahul Ranjeev Kumar, 2024. "A Comprehensive Review of Remaining Useful Life Estimation Approaches for Rotating Machinery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-46, November.
    17. Hu, Yang & Miao, Xuewen & Si, Yong & Pan, Ershun & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Prognostics and health management: A review from the perspectives of design, development and decision," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    18. Giovanni Rinaldi & Philipp R. Thies & Lars Johanning, 2021. "Current Status and Future Trends in the Operation and Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-28, April.
    19. KarabaÄŸ, Oktay & Eruguz, Ayse Sena & Basten, Rob, 2020. "Integrated optimization of maintenance interventions and spare part selection for a partially observable multi-component system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    20. Tseremoglou, Iordanis & Santos, Bruno F., 2024. "Condition-Based Maintenance scheduling of an aircraft fleet under partial observability: A Deep Reinforcement Learning approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:234:y:2023:i:c:s095183202300114x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.