IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v216y2021ics0951832021004476.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A single-loop Kriging coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent reliability analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Dapeng
  • Qiu, Haobo
  • Gao, Liang
  • Jiang, Chen

Abstract

Time-dependent reliability analysis (TRA) plays an important role in improving the validity and practicability of product reliability evaluation over an interested life interval. Conventional TRA for high-reliability product, however, requires tackling two main challenges: (1) the inaccurate analysis of small failure probability problem and (2) the computationally expensive time-variant performance function. In this paper, a single-loop Kriging coupled with subset simulation (SLK-co-SS) method is proposed to address these challenges. By introducing time-dependent intermediate failure events, the estimation of small failure probability is first converted into a product of larger condition probabilities, which can be estimated by a proposed most probable extreme value method based on the trained Kriging model. We then develop an improved maximum error-guided adaptive sampling strategy to sequentially train and update the Kriging model in every intermediate failure event. To make more training samples located at the high potential region of time-dependent limit state surface, the error-tolerance threshold of updating stopping criterion varies with the intermediate failure events. The comparison results on four examples demonstrate the good capability and applicability of proposed SLK-co-SS method.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Dapeng & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Jiang, Chen, 2021. "A single-loop Kriging coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021004476
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832021004476
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107931?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ling, Chunyan & Lu, Zhenzhou & Zhu, Xianming, 2019. "Efficient methods by active learning Kriging coupled with variance reduction based sampling methods for time-dependent failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 23-35.
    2. Qian, Hua-Ming & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2021. "Time-variant system reliability analysis method for a small failure probability problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Faddoul, R. & Raphael, W. & Chateauneuf, A., 2018. "Maintenance optimization of series systems subject to reliability constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 179-188.
    4. Bressi, Sara & Santos, João & Losa, Massimo, 2021. "Optimization of maintenance strategies for railway track-bed considering probabilistic degradation models and different reliability levels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    5. Wang, Zequn & Chen, Wei, 2016. "Time-variant reliability assessment through equivalent stochastic process transformation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 166-175.
    6. Lee, Dongjin & Pan, Rong, 2018. "A nonparametric Bayesian network approach to assessing system reliability at early design stages," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 57-66.
    7. Jian, Wang & Zhili, Sun & Qiang, Yang & Rui, Li, 2017. "Two accuracy measures of the Kriging model for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 494-505.
    8. Limbourg, Philipp & Kochs, Hans-Dieter, 2008. "Multi-objective optimization of generalized reliability design problems using feature models—A concept for early design stages," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 815-828.
    9. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming & Gao, Liang & Li, Peigen, 2019. "A general failure-pursuing sampling framework for surrogate-based reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 47-59.
    10. Du, Weiqi & Luo, Yuanxin & Wang, Yongqin, 2019. "Time-variant reliability analysis using the parallel subset simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 250-257.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Junhua & Chen, Longmiao & Qian, Linfang & Chen, Guangsong & Zhou, Shijie, 2022. "Time-dependent kinematic reliability analysis of gear mechanism based on sequential decoupling strategy and saddle-point approximation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. Wang, Dapeng & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Jiang, Chen, 2024. "A Subdomain uncertainty-guided Kriging method with optimized feasibility metric for time-dependent reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Huang, Shi-Ya & Zhang, Shao-He & Liu, Lei-Lei, 2022. "A new active learning Kriging metamodel for structural system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Zhao, Zhao & Lu, Zhao-Hui & Zhang, Xuan-Yi & Zhao, Yan-Gang, 2022. "A nested single-loop Kriging model coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    5. Lin, Zhixian & Tao, Longlong & Wang, Shaoxuan & Yong, Nuo & Xia, Dongqin & Wang, Jianye & Ge, Daochuan, 2024. "A subset simulation analysis framework for rapid reliability evaluation of series-parallel cold standby systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Zhang, Yang & Xu, Jun & Gardoni, Paolo, 2024. "A loading contribution degree analysis-based strategy for time-variant reliability analysis of structures under multiple loading stochastic processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Song, Zhouzhou & Zhang, Hanyu & Liu, Zhao & Zhu, Ping, 2023. "A two-stage Kriging estimation variance reduction method for efficient time-variant reliability-based design optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    8. Luo, Changqi & Zhu, Shun-Peng & Keshtegar, Behrooz & Niu, Xiaopeng & Taylan, Osman, 2023. "An enhanced uniform simulation approach coupled with SVR for efficient structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Zhang, Yang & Xu, Jun & Beer, Michael, 2023. "A single-loop time-variant reliability evaluation via a decoupling strategy and probability distribution reconstruction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Yang, Bin & Yang, Wenyu, 2023. "Modular approach to kinematic reliability analysis of industrial robots," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Zhao, Zhao & Zhao, Yan-Gang & Li, Pei-Pei, 2023. "A novel decoupled time-variant reliability-based design optimization approach by improved extreme value moment method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    12. Carlon, André Gustavo & Kroetz, Henrique Machado & Torii, André Jacomel & Lopez, Rafael Holdorf & Miguel, Leandro Fleck Fadel, 2022. "Risk optimization using the Chernoff bound and stochastic gradient descent," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    13. Ramadhani, Adhitya & Khan, Faisal & Colbourne, Bruce & Ahmed, Salim & Taleb-Berrouane, Mohammed, 2022. "Resilience assessment of offshore structures subjected to ice load considering complex dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Wang, Dapeng & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming, 2020. "EEK-SYS: System reliability analysis through estimation error-guided adaptive Kriging approximation of multiple limit state surfaces," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Guo, Hongyuan & Zhang, Jiaxin & Dong, You & Frangopol, Dan M., 2024. "Probability-informed neural network-driven point-evolution kernel density estimation for time-dependent reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    3. Jiang, Chen & Yan, Yifang & Wang, Dapeng & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang, 2021. "Global and local Kriging limit state approximation for time-dependent reliability-based design optimization through wrong-classification probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    4. Qian, Hua-Ming & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2021. "Time-variant system reliability analysis method for a small failure probability problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Cao, Runan & Sun, Zhili & Wang, Jian & Guo, Fanyi, 2022. "A single-loop reliability analysis strategy for time-dependent problems with small failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Zhang, Yang & Xu, Jun & Beer, Michael, 2023. "A single-loop time-variant reliability evaluation via a decoupling strategy and probability distribution reconstruction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. Wang, Zhonglai & Liu, Jing & Yu, Shui, 2020. "Time-variant reliability prediction for dynamic systems using partial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Wang, Dapeng & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Jiang, Chen, 2024. "A Subdomain uncertainty-guided Kriging method with optimized feasibility metric for time-dependent reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    9. Teixeira, Rui & Nogal, Maria & O’Connor, Alan & Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz, 2020. "Reliability assessment with density scanned adaptive Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    10. Zhang, Jinhao & Xiao, Mi & Gao, Liang, 2019. "An active learning reliability method combining Kriging constructed with exploration and exploitation of failure region and subset simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 90-102.
    11. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Shi, Yan & Lu, Zhenzhou & He, Ruyang & Zhou, Yicheng & Chen, Siyu, 2020. "A novel learning function based on Kriging for reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Teixeira, Rui & Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz & Nogal, Maria & O’Connor, Alan, 2021. "Reliability analysis using a multi-metamodel complement-basis approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. Zhao, Zhao & Lu, Zhao-Hui & Zhang, Xuan-Yi & Zhao, Yan-Gang, 2022. "A nested single-loop Kriging model coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    15. Yang, Meide & Zhang, Dequan & Jiang, Chao & Han, Xu & Li, Qing, 2021. "A hybrid adaptive Kriging-based single loop approach for complex reliability-based design optimization problems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    16. Xu, Zhaoyi & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2021. "Machine learning for reliability engineering and safety applications: Review of current status and future opportunities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    17. Li, Junxiang & Chen, Jianqiao, 2019. "Solving time-variant reliability-based design optimization by PSO-t-IRS: A methodology incorporating a particle swarm optimization algorithm and an enhanced instantaneous response surface," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Wang, Jian & Sun, Zhili & Cao, Runan, 2021. "An efficient and robust Kriging-based method for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Cheng, Kai & Lu, Zhenzhou, 2019. "Time-variant reliability analysis based on high dimensional model representation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 310-319.
    20. Bismut, Elizabeth & Pandey, Mahesh D. & Straub, Daniel, 2022. "Reliability-based inspection and maintenance planning of a nuclear feeder piping system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021004476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.