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A nested single-loop Kriging model coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent system reliability analysis

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  • Zhao, Zhao
  • Lu, Zhao-Hui
  • Zhang, Xuan-Yi
  • Zhao, Yan-Gang

Abstract

Time-dependent system reliability analysis still faces severe challenges including the simultaneous consideration of time-dependent uncertainties under multiple failure modes and the accurate estimation of small failure probability. Therefore, this paper proposes a nested single-loop Kriging (NSLK) model coupled with subset simulation (SS) method, named NSLK-co-SS, for time-dependent system reliability assessment. Firstly, based on the rationale of SS method, the small time-dependent system failure probability is converted into the product of a series of large intermediate failure probabilities by introducing a series of intermediate failure events. Then, by reformulating the time-dependent system reliability problem as a nested system reliability one, the NSLK method is developed to estimate each intermediate failure probability. Meanwhile, a system reliability theory-based U (SYSU) learning function is proposed to identify both the best training sample and mode and sequentially update the Kriging models of multiple modes in a series of small intermediate sample pools. Two numerical examples and an engineering example were investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Zhao & Lu, Zhao-Hui & Zhang, Xuan-Yi & Zhao, Yan-Gang, 2022. "A nested single-loop Kriging model coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:228:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022004380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108819
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ling, Chunyan & Lu, Zhenzhou & Zhu, Xianming, 2019. "Efficient methods by active learning Kriging coupled with variance reduction based sampling methods for time-dependent failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 23-35.
    2. Qian, Hua-Ming & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2021. "Time-variant system reliability analysis method for a small failure probability problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    3. Wang, Dapeng & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Jiang, Chen, 2021. "A single-loop Kriging coupled with subset simulation for time-dependent reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Kleijnen, Jack P.C., 2009. "Kriging metamodeling in simulation: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 707-716, February.
    5. Hu, Yingshi & Lu, Zhenzhou & Jiang, Xia & Wei, Ning & Zhou, Changcong, 2021. "Time-dependent structural system reliability analysis model and its efficiency solution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Cao, Runan & Sun, Zhili & Wang, Jian & Guo, Fanyi, 2022. "A single-loop reliability analysis strategy for time-dependent problems with small failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Dapeng & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Jiang, Chen, 2024. "A Subdomain uncertainty-guided Kriging method with optimized feasibility metric for time-dependent reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Yuan, Xiukai & Zheng, Weiming & Zhao, Chaofan & Valdebenito, Marcos A. & Faes, Matthias G.R. & Dong, Yiwei, 2024. "Line sampling for time-variant failure probability estimation using an adaptive combination approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Ouyang, Linhan & Che, Yushuai & Park, Chanseok & Chen, Yuejian, 2024. "A novel active learning Gaussian process modeling-based method for time-dependent reliability analysis considering mixed variables," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    4. Lin, Zhixian & Tao, Longlong & Wang, Shaoxuan & Yong, Nuo & Xia, Dongqin & Wang, Jianye & Ge, Daochuan, 2024. "A subset simulation analysis framework for rapid reliability evaluation of series-parallel cold standby systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Song, Zhouzhou & Zhang, Hanyu & Liu, Zhao & Zhu, Ping, 2023. "A two-stage Kriging estimation variance reduction method for efficient time-variant reliability-based design optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).

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