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Time-variant reliability analysis based on high dimensional model representation

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  • Cheng, Kai
  • Lu, Zhenzhou

Abstract

Time-variant reliability analysis aims at estimating the probability that an engineering system successfully performs intended missions over a certain period of time under various sources of uncertainty. In order to perform the time-variant reliability analysis efficiently, this paper presents a high dimensional model representation (HDMR) model combined with an active learning strategy to estimate the failure probability of dynamic problem. Firstly, the HDMR meta-model is established in the augmented input space (random variables and time) based on Gaussian process regression technique. Then, a reliability analysis approach incorporating epistemic uncertainty is proposed, and a learning function is introduced to update the experimental design sequentially. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation method is applied for time-variant failure probability assessment based on the well-developed HDMR meta-model. Two engineering applications are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for time-variant reliability analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Kai & Lu, Zhenzhou, 2019. "Time-variant reliability analysis based on high dimensional model representation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 310-319.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:188:y:2019:i:c:p:310-319
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.041
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Yang & Xu, Jun & Gardoni, Paolo, 2024. "A loading contribution degree analysis-based strategy for time-variant reliability analysis of structures under multiple loading stochastic processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Zhang, Yang & Xu, Jun & Beer, Michael, 2023. "A single-loop time-variant reliability evaluation via a decoupling strategy and probability distribution reconstruction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    4. Qian, Hua-Ming & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong, 2021. "Time-variant system reliability analysis method for a small failure probability problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Wang, Dapeng & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming, 2020. "EEK-SYS: System reliability analysis through estimation error-guided adaptive Kriging approximation of multiple limit state surfaces," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Wang, Zhonglai & Liu, Jing & Yu, Shui, 2020. "Time-variant reliability prediction for dynamic systems using partial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    8. Hu, Yingshi & Lu, Zhenzhou & Jiang, Xia & Wei, Ning & Zhou, Changcong, 2021. "Time-dependent structural system reliability analysis model and its efficiency solution," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Zhang, Jian & Gong, Weijie & Yue, Xinxin & Shi, Maolin & Chen, Lei, 2022. "Efficient reliability analysis using prediction-oriented active sparse polynomial chaos expansion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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