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A reliable technique for remaining useful life estimation of rolling element bearings using dynamic regression models

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  • Ahmad, Wasim
  • Khan, Sheraz Ali
  • Islam, M M Manjurul
  • Kim, Jong-Myon

Abstract

Induction motors most often fail due to faults in the rolling element bearings. Such failures can cause long and unscheduled downtime in a production facility, which can result in huge economic losses. The prediction of imminent failures and estimation of a bearing's remaining useful life (RUL) is vital for avoiding abrupt shutdowns and scheduling maintenance. In this paper, a reliable technique for the health prognosis of rolling element bearings is proposed, which infers a bearing's health through a dimensionless health indicator (HI) and estimates its RUL using dynamic regression models. The HI measures the instantaneous vibration level of the bearing with respect to a normal baseline value. The regression models are recursively updated to capture the evolving trend in the bearing's health indicator and are then used to project the future values of the health indicator and estimate the RUL of the bearing. The RUL of a bearing is estimated after determining the time to start prediction (TSP) using a new approach. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated on the PRONOSTIA dataset, and its prognostic performance is compared with two state-of-the-art techniques that are based on the extended Kalman filter and an exponential model that is improved using particle filters. The experimental results demonstrate the excellent prognostic performance of the proposed method due to its ability to determine an appropriate TSP and dynamic calibration of the regression models to adopt to the evolving trend in the bearing health indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Wasim & Khan, Sheraz Ali & Islam, M M Manjurul & Kim, Jong-Myon, 2019. "A reliable technique for remaining useful life estimation of rolling element bearings using dynamic regression models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 67-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:184:y:2019:i:c:p:67-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.02.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Chen, Mao-Yin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2013. "A degradation path-dependent approach for remaining useful life estimation with an exact and closed-form solution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 53-66.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miao, Mengqi & Yu, Jianbo & Zhao, Zhihong, 2022. "A sparse domain adaption network for remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearings under different working conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Guishuang Tian & Shaoping Wang & Jian Shi & Yajing Qiao, 2022. "State Estimation and Remaining Useful Life Prediction of PMSTM Based on a Combination of SIR and HSMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Liu, Shujie & Fan, Lexian, 2022. "An adaptive prediction approach for rolling bearing remaining useful life based on multistage model with three-source variability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    4. Ma, Chenyang & Li, Yongbo & Wang, Xianzhi & Cai, Zhiqiang, 2023. "Early fault diagnosis of rotating machinery based on composite zoom permutation entropy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
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    6. Li, Guofa & Wei, Jingfeng & He, Jialong & Yang, Haiji & Meng, Fanning, 2023. "Implicit Kalman filtering method for remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing with adaptive detection of degradation stage transition point," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Cheng, Han & Kong, Xianguang & Wang, Qibin & Ma, Hongbo & Yang, Shengkang, 2022. "The two-stage RUL prediction across operation conditions using deep transfer learning and insufficient degradation data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Zeki Murat Çınar & Abubakar Abdussalam Nuhu & Qasim Zeeshan & Orhan Korhan & Mohammed Asmael & Babak Safaei, 2020. "Machine Learning in Predictive Maintenance towards Sustainable Smart Manufacturing in Industry 4.0," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-42, October.
    9. Wang, Han & Wang, Dongdong & Liu, Haoxiang & Tang, Gang, 2022. "A predictive sliding local outlier correction method with adaptive state change rate determining for bearing remaining useful life estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    10. Saeed, Umer & Jan, Sana Ullah & Lee, Young-Doo & Koo, Insoo, 2021. "Fault diagnosis based on extremely randomized trees in wireless sensor networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Xiang, Sheng & Qin, Yi & Luo, Jun & Pu, Huayan & Tang, Baoping, 2021. "Multicellular LSTM-based deep learning model for aero-engine remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Lee, Jinwook & Kim, Myungyon & Ko, Jin Uk & Jung, Joon Ha & Sun, Kyung Ho & Youn, Byeng D., 2022. "Asymmetric inter-intra domain alignments (AIIDA) method for intelligent fault diagnosis of rotating machinery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    13. Zio, Enrico, 2022. "Prognostics and Health Management (PHM): Where are we and where do we (need to) go in theory and practice," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    14. Kumar, Anil & Kumar, Rajesh & Tang, Hesheng & Xiang, Jiawei, 2024. "A comprehensive study on developing an intelligent framework for identification and quantitative evaluation of the bearing defect size," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    15. Mariusz Zieja & Andrzej Gębura & Andrzej Szelmanowski & Bartłomiej Główczyk, 2021. "Non-Invasive Monitoring of the Technical Condition of Power Units Using the FAM-C and FDM-A Electrical Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Han, Xiao & Wang, Zili & Xie, Min & He, Yihai & Li, Yao & Wang, Wenzhuo, 2021. "Remaining useful life prediction and predictive maintenance strategies for multi-state manufacturing systems considering functional dependence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    17. Liu, Junqiang & Yu, Zhuoqian & Zuo, Hongfu & Fu, Rongchunxue & Feng, Xiaonan, 2022. "Multi-stage residual life prediction of aero-engine based on real-time clustering and combined prediction model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    18. González-Muñiz, Ana & Díaz, Ignacio & Cuadrado, Abel A. & García-Pérez, Diego, 2022. "Health indicator for machine condition monitoring built in the latent space of a deep autoencoder," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    19. Wu, Jingyao & Zhao, Zhibin & Sun, Chuang & Yan, Ruqiang & Chen, Xuefeng, 2021. "Learning from Class-imbalanced Data with a Model-Agnostic Framework for Machine Intelligent Diagnosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Bermeo-Ayerbe, Miguel Angel & Cocquempot, Vincent & Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos & Diaz-Rozo, Javier, 2023. "Remaining useful life estimation of ball-bearings based on motor current signature analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

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