Assessment method of the multicomponent systems future ability to achieve productive tasks from local prognoses

Conditioned-based maintenance and prognostics and health management enable to optimize maintenance by scheduling the necessary repairs and replacements of technical system components according to their present and future health states. The assessment of future health states is the prognostics and health management keystone. Many technical production systems are made of numerous components implementing their functions. A method to assess the ability of multicomponent systems to carry out future production tasks is proposed to provide decision supports for production and maintenance planning for a better compromise between their objectives. It is based on components prognoses. To handle inherent uncertainties of these prognoses, the method is based on the Dempster Shafer theory and Bayesian networks inferences. Local prognoses are categorized and transformed to be compliant to Dempster Shafer theory. Patterns of systems are identified for which inferences are defined. The patterns are then used to model systems and to assess their abilities to achieve future tasks. An identification of components that should first undergo maintenance is proposed. An example implementing a fictitious complex systems is presented to show how the provided decision supports can be used for production and maintenance planning purposes.