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Resilience analytics with disruption of preferences and lifecycle cost analysis for energy microgrids

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  • Hamilton, Michelle C.
  • Lambert, James H.
  • Connelly, Elizabeth B.
  • Barker, Kash

Abstract

Innovative technologies are presenting opportunities to improve resilience of energy plans for industrial and military installations. The investment rationale is complicated by uncertain future conditions across the system lifecycle, including technology, climate, economy, and others. This paper introduces resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences as follows. Risk is addressed here as the degree of disruption of priorities for investments in engineering systems. The particular concern of this paper is disruption from shifts in public values, and to evaluate the resilience of investment plans to such shifts. It recognizes resilience models as compilations of instantaneous framings of initiatives, objectives, stakeholder preferences, and uncertainties. Problem frames can be considered in series, where inputs to frames are the outputs of previous frames. Or frames can be considered in parallel, featuring joint inputs while addressing differing questions. This paper presents a case study of resilience analytics focusing on two quantitative frames. In the first frame, scenario-based preferences are used to identify combinations of factors disruptive to energy innovation at installations. In the second frame, estimation of lifecycle costs is performed with respect to factors that were identified as influential in the previous frame.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamilton, Michelle C. & Lambert, James H. & Connelly, Elizabeth B. & Barker, Kash, 2016. "Resilience analytics with disruption of preferences and lifecycle cost analysis for energy microgrids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 11-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:150:y:2016:i:c:p:11-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.01.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Jasiūnas, Justinas & Lund, Peter D. & Mikkola, Jani, 2021. "Energy system resilience – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Hussain, Akhtar & Bui, Van-Hai & Kim, Hak-Man, 2019. "Microgrids as a resilience resource and strategies used by microgrids for enhancing resilience," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 56-72.
    3. Ayedh Almutairi & John P. Wheeler & David L. Slutzky & James H. Lambert, 2019. "Integrating Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Scenarios to Improve Resilience of Cyber‐Physical‐Social Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2093-2112, September.
    4. Shortridge, Julie & Aven, Terje & Guikema, Seth, 2017. "Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 12-23.
    5. Hossam A. Gabbar, 2021. "Resiliency Analysis of Hybrid Energy Systems within Interconnected Infrastructures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-12, November.
    6. Bostick, T.P. & Connelly, E.B. & Lambert, J.H. & Linkov, I., 2018. "Resilience science, policy and investment for civil infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 19-23.
    7. Almutairi, Ayedh & Collier, Zachary A. & Hendrickson, Daniel & Palma-Oliveira, José M. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2019. "Stakeholder mapping and disruption scenarios with application to resilience of a container port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 219-232.
    8. Jie Zhao & Ji Yun Lee & Dane Camenzind & Michael Wolcott & Kristin Lewis & Olivia Gillham, 2023. "Multi-Component Resilience Assessment Framework for a Supply Chain System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, April.
    9. Hassler, Madison L. & Andrews, Daniel J. & Ezell, Barry C. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2020. "Multi-perspective scenario-based preferences in enterprise risk analysis of public safety wireless broadband network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. Zachary A. Collier & Elizabeth B. Connelly & Thomas L. Polmateer & James H. Lambert, 2017. "Value chain for next-generation biofuels: resilience and sustainability of the product life cycle," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 22-33, March.
    11. Heimir Thorisson & James H. Lambert & John J. Cardenas & Igor Linkov, 2017. "Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1268-1286, July.
    12. Taylan G. Topcu & Konstantinos Triantis, 2022. "An ex-ante DEA method for representing contextual uncertainties and stakeholder risk preferences," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(1), pages 395-423, February.
    13. Corinne Curt & Jean‐Marc Tacnet, 2018. "Resilience of Critical Infrastructures: Review and Analysis of Current Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2441-2458, November.

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