IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v37y2017i7p1268-1286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region

Author

Listed:
  • Heimir Thorisson
  • James H. Lambert
  • John J. Cardenas
  • Igor Linkov

Abstract

Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario‐based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Heimir Thorisson & James H. Lambert & John J. Cardenas & Igor Linkov, 2017. "Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(7), pages 1268-1286, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:7:p:1268-1286
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12711
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12711?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Haowen You & Elizabeth B. Connelly & James H. Lambert & Andres F. Clarens, 2014. "Climate and other scenarios disrupt priorities in several management perspectives," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 540-554, December.
    2. Francis, Royce & Bekera, Behailu, 2014. "A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 90-103.
    3. Bilal M. Ayyub, 2014. "Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition, Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 340-355, February.
    4. Stéphane Hallegatte & Jun Rentschler, 2015. "Risk Management for Development—Assessing Obstacles and Prioritizing Action," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 193-210, February.
    5. Kaufmann, Daniel, 2005. "Myths and Realities of Governance and Corruption," MPRA Paper 8089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Paul Goodwin & George Wright, 2001. "Enhancing Strategy Evaluation in Scenario Planning: a Role for Decision Analysis," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Doll, Christopher N.H. & Pachauri, Shonali, 2010. "Estimating rural populations without access to electricity in developing countries through night-time light satellite imagery," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5661-5670, October.
    8. Elizabeth B. Connelly & Lisa M. Colosi & Andres F. Clarens & James H. Lambert, 2015. "Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario‐Based Expert Elicitation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 178-191, March.
    9. J. Park & T. P. Seager & P. S. C. Rao & M. Convertino & I. Linkov, 2013. "Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 356-367, March.
    10. Terje Aven, 2011. "On Some Recent Definitions and Analysis Frameworks for Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 515-522, April.
    11. Hamilton, Michelle C. & Lambert, James H. & Connelly, Elizabeth B. & Barker, Kash, 2016. "Resilience analytics with disruption of preferences and lifecycle cost analysis for energy microgrids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 11-21.
    12. Stewart, Theodor J. & French, Simon & Rios, Jesus, 2013. "Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 679-688.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayedh Almutairi & John P. Wheeler & David L. Slutzky & James H. Lambert, 2019. "Integrating Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Scenarios to Improve Resilience of Cyber‐Physical‐Social Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2093-2112, September.
    2. Adnan Sarwar & Faisal Khan & Majeed Abimbola & Lesley James, 2018. "Resilience Analysis of a Remote Offshore Oil and Gas Facility for a Potential Hydrocarbon Release," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(8), pages 1601-1617, August.
    3. Almutairi, Ayedh & Collier, Zachary A. & Hendrickson, Daniel & Palma-Oliveira, José M. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2019. "Stakeholder mapping and disruption scenarios with application to resilience of a container port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 219-232.
    4. Jerry Selvaseelan, 2018. "Development and Introduction of the Risk-Sentience Auxiliary Framework (RSAF) as an Enabler to the ISO 31000 and ISO 31010 for High-Risk Environments," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Megan C. Marcellin & Gigi Pavur & Davis C. Loose & John J. Cardenas & David Denehy & Mustafa Almashhadani & Saddam Q. Waheed & Benjamin D. Trump & Thomas L. Polmateer & Igor Linkov & Venkataraman Laks, 2024. "Systems analysis for energy assets of Iraq influenced by water scarcity," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 259-279, June.
    6. Hassler, Madison L. & Andrews, Daniel J. & Ezell, Barry C. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2020. "Multi-perspective scenario-based preferences in enterprise risk analysis of public safety wireless broadband network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Xiaoge Zhang & Sankaran Mahadevan & Kai Goebel, 2019. "Network Reconfiguration for Increasing Transportation System Resilience Under Extreme Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2054-2075, September.
    8. Morales-Torres, Adrián & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Serrano-Lombillo, Armando & Castillo Rodríguez, Jesica T., 2019. "Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in risk-informed decision making for dam safety management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Igor Linkov & Cate Fox‐Lent & Laura Read & Craig R. Allen & James C. Arnott & Emanuele Bellini & Jon Coaffee & Marie‐Valentine Florin & Kirk Hatfield & Iain Hyde & William Hynes & Aleksandar Jovanovic, 2018. "Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1772-1780, September.
    10. Heimir Thorisson & Marwan Alsultan & Daniel Hendrickson & Thomas L. Polmateer & James H. Lambert, 2019. "Addressing schedule disruptions in business processes of advanced logistics systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 66-79, January.
    11. Zhen, Lu & Lin, Shumin & Zhou, Chenhao, 2022. "Green port oriented resilience improvement for traffic-power coupled networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. Shital A. Thekdi & Joost Santos, 2019. "Decision‐Making Analytics Using Plural Resilience Parameters for Adaptive Management of Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 871-889, April.
    13. Corinne Curt & Jean‐Marc Tacnet, 2018. "Resilience of Critical Infrastructures: Review and Analysis of Current Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2441-2458, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corinne Curt & Jean‐Marc Tacnet, 2018. "Resilience of Critical Infrastructures: Review and Analysis of Current Approaches," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2441-2458, November.
    2. Ayedh Almutairi & John P. Wheeler & David L. Slutzky & James H. Lambert, 2019. "Integrating Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Scenarios to Improve Resilience of Cyber‐Physical‐Social Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 2093-2112, September.
    3. Hassler, Madison L. & Andrews, Daniel J. & Ezell, Barry C. & Polmateer, Thomas L. & Lambert, James H., 2020. "Multi-perspective scenario-based preferences in enterprise risk analysis of public safety wireless broadband network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. H. Klammler & P. S. C. Rao & K. Hatfield, 2018. "Modeling dynamic resilience in coupled technological-social systems subjected to stochastic disturbance regimes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 140-159, March.
    5. Yifan Yang & S. Thomas Ng & Frank J. Xu & Martin Skitmore & Shenghua Zhou, 2019. "Towards Resilient Civil Infrastructure Asset Management: An Information Elicitation and Analytical Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-24, August.
    6. Liu, Xing & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A Hierarchical Resilience Enhancement Framework for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    7. Nader Naderpajouh & David J. Yu & Daniel P. Aldrich & Igor Linkov & Juri Matinheikki, 2018. "Engineering meets institutions: an interdisciplinary approach to the management of resilience," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 306-317, September.
    8. Amanda Melendez & David Caballero-Russi & Mariantonieta Gutierrez Soto & Luis Felipe Giraldo, 2022. "Computational models of community resilience," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1121-1152, March.
    9. Thomas P. Bostick & Thomas H. Holzer & Shahryar Sarkani, 2017. "Enabling Stakeholder Involvement in Coastal Disaster Resilience Planning," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1181-1200, June.
    10. Cassottana, Beatrice & Shen, Lijuan & Tang, Loon Ching, 2019. "Modeling the recovery process: A key dimension of resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Payuna Uday & Karen Marais, 2015. "Designing Resilient Systems‐of‐Systems: A Survey of Metrics, Methods, and Challenges," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(5), pages 491-510, October.
    12. Hamilton, Michelle C. & Lambert, James H. & Connelly, Elizabeth B. & Barker, Kash, 2016. "Resilience analytics with disruption of preferences and lifecycle cost analysis for energy microgrids," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 11-21.
    13. Uday, Payuna & Chandrahasa, Rakshit & Marais, Karen, 2019. "System Importance Measures: Definitions and Application to System-of-Systems Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Zachary A. Collier & Elizabeth B. Connelly & Thomas L. Polmateer & James H. Lambert, 2017. "Value chain for next-generation biofuels: resilience and sustainability of the product life cycle," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 22-33, March.
    15. Shen, Lijuan & Cassottana, Beatrice & Tang, Loon Ching, 2018. "Statistical trend tests for resilience of power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 138-147.
    16. Yang, Bofan & Zhang, Lin & Zhang, Bo & Xiang, Yang & An, Lei & Wang, Wenfeng, 2022. "Complex equipment system resilience: Composition, measurement and element analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Hiba Baroud & Jose E. Ramirez‐Marquez & Kash Barker & Claudio M. Rocco, 2014. "Stochastic Measures of Network Resilience: Applications to Waterway Commodity Flows," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1317-1335, July.
    18. Arbrie Jashari & Victor Tiberius & Marina Dabić, 2022. "Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(2), June.
    19. Dubaniowski, Mateusz Iwo & Heinimann, Hans Rudolf, 2021. "Framework for modeling interdependencies between households, businesses, and infrastructure system, and their response to disruptions—application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    20. Durbach, Ian N., 2014. "Outranking under uncertainty using scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 98-108.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:37:y:2017:i:7:p:1268-1286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.