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An ex-ante DEA method for representing contextual uncertainties and stakeholder risk preferences

Author

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  • Taylan G. Topcu

    (The George Washington University)

  • Konstantinos Triantis

    (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)

Abstract

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is an analytical method for measuring, benchmarking, and improving efficiency performance. While DEA has traditionally been a deterministic ex-post approach, when operational data are not available, it can be positioned to represent an ex-ante perspective, if it is feasible to simulate production behaviors. However, there are two limitations of ex-ante DEA. First, is the representation of uncertainties associated with the contextual conditions and their impact on production. Second, is the inability to incorporate risk preferences that relate to the organizations’ attitude towards production uncertainty. This paper addresses these two gaps through a method that integrates Monte-Carlo simulations, the Subjective Expected Utility Theory, and ex-ante DEA. Our method allows to explicitly model and incorporate the uncertainties associated with the contextual variables and the production behavior, while facilitating the representation of risk preferences. We demonstrate our method through a case study that is framed around a hypothetical community evaluating Micro-Grid (MG) design alternatives. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Lab data to model the stakeholder energy demand and environmental uncertainties; and use the engineering specifications for the MG technology to populate the production possibility set. We then investigate the distribution of efficiency scores by using various stakeholder risk attitudes and find that DEA rankings are insensitive to risk preferences. The proposed method and the documented risk insensitivity are significant contributions as they allow to reposition ex-ante DEA as a nonparametric alternative to multi-criteria decision-making, which can be generalized across different application areas, including uncommon DEA applications such as engineering.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylan G. Topcu & Konstantinos Triantis, 2022. "An ex-ante DEA method for representing contextual uncertainties and stakeholder risk preferences," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 309(1), pages 395-423, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:309:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-021-04271-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-021-04271-1
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