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The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees

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  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Nugent, Jeffrey B.

Abstract

The current literature on forced migration offers only limited knowledge of how each of the different consequences of war, such as damage to property and casualties to family members, and the services provided to the refugees in the host country, affect the difficult choices that refugees subsequently must make as to when and where to migrate from their location as refugees. This paper contributes to that literature by studying the effects of armed violence in Syria on the intentions of Syrian refugees in Turkey to return to Syria, stay in Turkey or move on to Europe and elsewhere. The study is based on three waves of a survey of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Special attention is given to the impacts of war (loss of home, property damage and casualties) and the duration of stay and quality of services received as refugees in Turkey, as well the individual characteristics of the refugees (e.g., gender, age, education, and income). The results show that (1) the longer and greater the level of violence in the country of origin, and the longer the time spent outside of Syria, the lower the likelihood that the refugee will want to return to Syria; (2) the longer the time the refugee has spent in Turkey, the higher is the probability of permanent settlement in another European country; and (3) the more and higher quality of services provided to the refugees, the more likely they are to remain in Turkey. The results offer insights into the design of international policy for dealing with the violence and the handling of refugees.

Suggested Citation

  • Balcilar, Mehmet & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2019. "The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:73:y:2019:i:c:p:95-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2018.09.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Joop Age Harm Adema & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Yvonne Giesing & Panu Poutvaara, 2023. "The Effect of Conflict on Ukrainian Refugees’ Return and Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 10877, CESifo.
    2. Kırdar, Murat Güray & Koç, İsmet & Dayıoğlu, Meltem, 2023. "School integration of Syrian refugee children in Turkey," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Adema, Joop & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Giesing, Yvonne & Poutvaara, Panu, 2024. "The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 16962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Demirci, Murat & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "The labor market integration of Syrian refugees in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Stillman, Sarah & Rozo, Sandra V & Tamim, Abdulrazzak & Palmer, I Bailey & Smith, Emma & Miguel, Edward, 2022. "The Syrian refugee life study: first glance," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6hr6f3wx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Sarah Stillman & Sandra V Rozo & Abdulrazzak Tamim & I Bailey Palmer & Emma Smith & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Syrian refugee life study: first glance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 625-653.
    7. Mehmet Balcilar & Jeffrey B. Nugent & Jiahui Xu, 2022. "Adversities in Syria and their relation to their physical and mental health conditions as Syrian refugees in Turkey," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(1), pages 37-59, February.
    8. Hadhri, Sinda, 2024. "The role of migration fear in (dis)connecting stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Doruk Cengiz & Hasan Tekgüç, 2022. "Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(3), pages 741-768, May.
    10. Walk, Erin & Garimella, Kiran & Christia, Fotini, 2023. "Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Juan Carlos Martín & Alessandro Indelicato, 2022. "A DEA MCDM Approach Applied to ESS8 Dataset for Measuring Immigration and Refugees Citizens’ Openness," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1941-1961, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Forced migration; Labor market; Employment; Immigration; Logit; Model; Civil war; Syria; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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