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The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Adema, Joop

    (University of Munich)

  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray

    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

  • Giesing, Yvonne

    (Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

  • Poutvaara, Panu

    (University of Munich)

Abstract

What is the causal effect of conflict on refugees' return and integration? To answer this question, we launched a panel survey of Ukrainian refugees across Europe in June 2022 and combined it with geocoded conflict data. Most refugees plan to return, and initial return intentions strongly predict actual return. Those who initially plan to settle outside Ukraine integrate faster. Increased conflict intensity in the home municipality discourages return there, but not to Ukraine as a whole. It also has no effect on the likelihood of working. Liberation of the home district increases return, while increased pessimism about the outcome of the war reduces return intentions.

Suggested Citation

  • Adema, Joop & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Giesing, Yvonne & Poutvaara, Panu, 2024. "The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 16962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16962
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; Ukraine; migration; refugees; return migration; integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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