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Time to Go? Duration Dependence in Forced Migration

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  • Erik Melander
  • Magnus Öberg

Abstract

In this paper we introduce some theoretical and methodological refinements to account for effects of duration dependence in forced migration flows that have not been noticed in previous research. The engine of previous theoretical arguments on forced migration has been a decision theoretic model in which the potential migrants estimate the threat to their security and then weigh this threat against costs and benefits of leaving. Moreover, in previous arguments and empirical tests the costs and benefits for relocating have been treated as being the same for all people in a country. We relax this assumption, allowing the costs and benefits of relocating to be different for different individuals. This implies that some people more readily relocate than others. Over time this generates a selection effect in the population that remains behind, such that the remaining population will become increasingly unwilling or unable to relocate. The implications of our theoretical refinement are borne out empirically. Contrary to previous research we find that the accumulated stock of forced migrants decrease rather than increase the probability of new migration. Furthermore, we find that forced migrant flows abate rather than soar over time. The authors would like to thank Mats Hammarström and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and Tarek Abou Chabake for providing UNHCR data. Replication data and do-files can be downloaded from http://w ww.pcr.uu.se/personal/anstallda/melander.htm . Both authors contributed equally to all parts of the article.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Melander & Magnus Öberg, 2006. "Time to Go? Duration Dependence in Forced Migration," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 129-152, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:32:y:2006:i:2:p:129-152
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620600574873
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathalie E. Williams & Michelle L. O'Brien & Xiaozheng Yao, 2021. "How Armed Conflict Influences Migration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(3), pages 781-811, September.
    2. Timothy J. Hatton, 2017. "Refugees and asylum seekers, the crisis in Europe and the future of policy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 447-496.
    3. Brücker, Herbert & Deuster, Christoph & Fendel, Tanja & Jaschke, Philipp & Keita, Sekou & Freitas Monteiro, Teresa, 2021. "Nach der Machtübernahme der Taliban in Afghanistan: Erfahrungen aus der Vergangenheit und erste Einschätzungen der Folgen für Migration und Integration," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202109, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    5. Hatton, Tim & Moloney, Joe, 2015. "Applications for Asylum in the Developed World: Modelling Asylum Claims by Origin and Destination," CEPR Discussion Papers 10678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. David Escamilla-Guerrero & Edward Kosack & Zachary Ward, 2023. "The Impact of Violence during the Mexican Revolution on Migration to the United States," NBER Working Papers 31531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2019. "The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-110.
    8. Xiaoyun Li & Hongsheng Chen, 2021. "Two-Way Floating or Irreversible Floating? The Transition of Migrants from Urban Social Integration to Permanent Settlement in the Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-13, August.
    9. Schmid, Lena & Renner, Laura, 2020. "The Decision to Flee: Analyzing Gender-Specific Determinants of International Refugee Migration," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224596, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Bryce W. Reeder & Matthew R. Reeder, 2014. "Political Violence, Interstate Rivalry, and the Diffusion of Public Health Crises," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1101-1120, December.
    11. Idean Salehyan, 2008. "The Externalities of Civil Strife: Refugees as a Source of International Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 787-801, October.
    12. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    13. Seraina Rüegger & Heidrun Bohnet, 2018. "The Ethnicity of Refugees (ER): A new dataset for understanding flight patterns1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 65-88, January.
    14. Aree Jampaklay & Kathleen Ford & Aphichat Chamratrithirong, 2017. "How does unrest affect migration? Evidence from the three southernmost provinces of Thailand," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(3), pages 25-52.

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