IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/ilrrev/v75y2022i3p741-768.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Doruk Cengiz
  • Hasan Tekgüç

Abstract

The authors use the occurrence of a large and geographically varying inflow of more than 2.5 million Syrian migrants to Turkey between 2012 and 2015 to study the effect of migration on local economies. They do not find adverse employment or wage effects for native-born Turkish workers overall or for those without a high school degree. These results are robust to a range of strategies to construct reliable control groups. To explain the findings, the authors document the importance of three migration-induced demand channels: the complementarity between native and migrant labor, housing demand, and increased entrepreneurial activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Doruk Cengiz & Hasan Tekgüç, 2022. "Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 75(3), pages 741-768, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:75:y:2022:i:3:p:741-768
    DOI: 10.1177/0019793920978365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0019793920978365
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0019793920978365?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    2. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Wage Impact Of The Marielitos: A Reappraisal," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 12, pages 375-408, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. David Card, 2009. "Immigration and Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    7. Aksu, Ege & Erzan, Refik & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Rui Baptista & Vítor Escária & Paulo Madruga, 2008. "Entrepreneurship, regional development and job creation: the case of Portugal," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 49-58, January.
    9. George Borjas, 2013. "The analytics of the wage effect of immigration," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, December.
    10. George J. Borjas & Joan Monras, 2017. "The labour market consequences of refugee supply shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 361-413.
    11. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    12. Xu, Yiqing, 2017. "Generalized Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Interactive Fixed Effects Models," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 57-76, January.
    13. Giovanni Peri, 2014. "Do immigrant workers depress the wages of native workers?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-42, May.
    14. Altındağ, Onur & Bakış, Ozan & Rozo, Sandra V., 2020. "Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2019. "The migration of fear: An analysis of migration choices of Syrian refugees," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-110.
    16. Giovanni Peri, 2016. "The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From U.S. States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 8, pages 265-275, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. André Stel & Kashifa Suddle, 2008. "The impact of new firm formation on regional development in the Netherlands," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 31-47, January.
    18. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    19. David Card & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration Economics by George J. Borjas: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1333-1349, December.
    20. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 2010. "Wild Bootstrap Tests for IV Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 128-144.
    21. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    22. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    23. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    24. Del Carpio,Ximena Vanessa & Wagner,Mathis Christoph, 2015. "The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7402, The World Bank.
    25. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    26. Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 3-30, Fall.
    27. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2020. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, tasks and capital intensity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    28. Amelie F. Constant, 2014. "Do migrants take the jobs of native workers?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-10, May.
    29. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    30. Greg Howard, 2020. "The Migration Accelerator: Labor Mobility, Housing, and Demand," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 147-179, October.
    31. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2014:p:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    33. Burhan Can Karahasan, 2015. "Dynamics Of Regional New Firm Formation In Turkey," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 18-39, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Muñoz-Blanco & Federico Fabio Frattini, 2024. "Vaccines on the Move and the War on Polio," Discussion Papers 2403, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    2. Christian Schoder & Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2024. "A climate-fiscal policy mix to achieve Türkiye’s net-zero ambition under feasibility constraints," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 331-359, April.
    3. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    4. Carlo Lombardo & Julián Martinez-Correa & Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco & Leonardo Gasparini, 2022. "The distributional effect of a migratory exodus in a developing country: the role of downgrading and regularization," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4573, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    5. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Cilasun, Seyit Mümin & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2024. "Propagation of Immigration Shocks through Firm-to-Firm Trade Networks," IZA Discussion Papers 16770, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Matt Buehler & Kristin E. Fabbe & Eleni Kyrkopoulou, 2023. "Surveying the Landscape of Labor Market Threat Perceptions from Migration: Evidence from Attitudes toward Sub-Saharan African Migrants in Morocco," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(4), pages 748-773, August.
    7. Emine Kübra Usta, 2022. "Effects of Refugee Inflow on the Voting Behavior of Natives: Application of Mobile Phone Data [Local Governance Quality and the Environmental Cost of Forced Migration]," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 68(3), pages 219-252.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aksu, Ege & Erzan, Refik & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    4. Edo, Anthony & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Minimum wages and the labor market effects of immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr, 2018. "The Effects of Immigration in Developed Countries: Insights from Recent Economic Research," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-22, CEPII research center.
    6. Dogu Tan Araci & Murat Demirci & Murat Guray Kirdar, 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives’ Labor Market Outcomes," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2102, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    7. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2021. "Answering causal questions using observational data," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2021-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    8. Lebow, Jeremy, 2024. "Immigration and occupational downgrading in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Christian Gunadi, 2021. "The Labour Market Effects of Venezuelan Refugee Crisis in the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(6), pages 1311-1340, December.
    10. Anthony Edo, 2017. "The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War," CESifo Working Paper Series 6595, CESifo.
    11. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López‐Bazo, 2021. "Immigration and Native Employment. Evidence from Italian Provinces in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 405-428, April.
    12. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    13. Bosetti, Valentina & Cattaneo, Cristina & Verdolini, Elena, 2015. "Migration of skilled workers and innovation: A European Perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 311-322.
    14. Matthias Fahn & Takeshi Murooka, 2021. "Informal Incentives, Labor Supply, and the Effect of Immigration on Wages," Economics working papers 2021-12, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    15. Matthias Fahn & Takeshi Murooka, 2022. "Informal Incentives and Labor Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 9740, CESifo.
    16. Edo, Anthony & Özgüzel, Cem, 2023. "The impact of immigration on the employment dynamics of European regions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Labanca, Claudio, 2020. "The effects of a temporary migration shock: Evidence from the Arab Spring migration through Italy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Lebow Jeremy, 2022. "The labor market effects of Venezuelan migration to Colombia: reconciling conflicting results†," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-49, January.
    19. Lewis, Ethan & Peri, Giovanni, 2015. "Immigration and the Economy of Cities and Regions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 625-685, Elsevier.
    20. Bahar, Dany & Ibáñez, Ana María & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:ilrrev:v:75:y:2022:i:3:p:741-768. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ilr.cornell.edu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.