IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/32.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Czaika

    (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)

  • Krisztina Kis-Katos

    (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of displacement behavior based on various push and pull factors at the village level. The study concentrates on changes in village population during three years of civil conflict (1999-2002) in Aceh, Indonesia. The empirical analysis is based on a unique data�set from two census rounds of the Indonesian Village Potential Census (PODES). It uses data on around 5200 Acehnese villages and relates village level population change to conflict variables and traditional socio-economic determinants of migration. By applying quantile regressions, the push (outflow) factors and the pull (inflow) determinants of migration can also be distinguished. The study finds that the negative impact of conflict incidence on village population stock is mainly driven by reductions in inflow for slightly affected (inflow) villages, and by an outflow push for severely affected (outflow) villages. After controlling for conflict variables, socioeconomic factors remain significant and robust determinants for explaining internal displacements. Villages that are more dependent on agricultural production experience larger population outflows, and smaller population inflows, which reflects a clear rural�urban migration pattern. The presence of small�scale manufacturing industries helps to retain village population. These results emphasize that forced migration cannot be considered as only a result of a unidimensional fear of violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Czaika & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2007. "Civil Conflict and Displacement: Village-Level Determinants of Forced Migration in Aceh," HiCN Working Papers 32, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/wp32.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engel, Stefanie & Ibáñez, Ana María, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    2. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    3. Oded Stark, 1991. "The Migration of Labor," Blackwell Books, Wiley Blackwell, number 1557860300, April.
    4. Faini, Riccardo, 1996. "Increasing returns, migrations and convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 121-136, April.
    5. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Engel, Stefanie & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2007. "Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 335-365, January.
    7. Barron, Patrick & Kaiser, Kai & Pradhan, Menno, 2004. "Local conflict in Indonesia : Measuring incidence and identifying patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3384, The World Bank.
    8. Ghatak, Subrata & Levine, Paul & Price, Stephen Wheatley, 1996. "Migration Theories and Evidence: An Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 159-198, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias Ketterer, 2015. "Do we follow the money? The drivers of migration across regions in the EU," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 2, pages 27-45.
    2. John H. Tyler, 2003. "Using State Child Labor Laws to Identify the Effect of School-Year Work on High School Achievement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 353-380, April.
    3. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. A. Gentili, 2013. "Migration Costs and Networks: household optimal investment in migration," Working Papers wp867, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Pratikshya Bohra-Mishra & Douglas Massey, 2011. "Individual Decisions to Migrate During Civil Conflict," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(2), pages 401-424, May.
    6. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2001. "Migration and adjustment to shocks in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 23-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    7. Robert E.B. Lucas, 2007. "Migration and rural development," The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, vol. 4(1), pages 99-122.
    8. Ana María Ibá-ez, 2014. "Growth in forced displacement: cross-country, sub-national and household evidence on potential determinants," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 13, pages 350-387, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Robalino, Juan & Jimenez, José & Chacón, Adriana, 2015. "The Effect of Hydro-Meteorological Emergencies on Internal Migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 438-448.
    10. P R Agénor, 2005. "The Analytics of Segmented Labor Markets," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 52, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Timo Mitze & Torben Schmidt, 2015. "Internal migration, regional labor markets and the role of agglomeration economies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 55(1), pages 61-101, October.
    12. Yoshito Takasaki, 2013. "Do natural disasters beget fraud victimization?: Unrealized coping through labor migration among the poor," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2013-002, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    13. Ali GÖKHAN & Alpay FILIZTEKIN, 2008. "The Determinants of Internal Migration In Turkey," EcoMod2008 23800044, EcoMod.
    14. Mezger Kveder, Cora Leonie & Flahaux, Marie-Laurence, 2013. "Returning to Dakar: A Mixed Methods Analysis of the Role of Migration Experience for Occupational Status," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 223-238.
    15. Damien Gaumont & Alice Mesnard, 2000. "Altruism and international labour migration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 113-126.
    16. Akasaka, Shintaro, 2016. "Macro determinants of Migration: Review and Analysis," MPRA Paper 106509, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    17. Susmita Dasgupta & Md. Moqbul Hossain & Mainul Huq & David Wheeler, 2016. "Facing The Hungry Tide: Climate Change, Livelihood Threats, And Household Responses In Coastal Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-25, August.
    18. Thomas Liebig & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2003. "How does income inequality influence international migration?," ERSA conference papers ersa03p472, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Sanhita Sucharita, 2020. "Socio-economic Determinants of Temporary Labour Migration in Western Jharkhand, India," Millennial Asia, , vol. 11(2), pages 226-251, August.
    20. Kari Hämäläinen & Petri Böckerman, 2004. "Regional Labor Market Dynamics, Housing, and Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 543-568, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Displacement; civil conflict; Aceh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tilman Brück or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hicn.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.