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Safer sex? The effect of AIDS risk on birth rates

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  • Spencer, Melissa K.

Abstract

Behavioral adjustments to mitigate increasing risk of STIs can increase or decrease the likelihood of pregnancy. This paper measures the effects of the arrival and spread of AIDS across U.S. cities in the 1980s and 1990s on births and abortions. I show that the AIDS epidemic increased the birth rate by 0.55 percent and the abortion rate by 1.77 percent. I find support for two underlying mechanisms to explain the increase in pregnancies. Some women opted into monogamous partnerships in response to the AIDS epidemic, with a corresponding increase in the marriage rate and improvement in infant health. Others switched from prescription contraceptive methods to condoms. These behavioral changes lowered the incidence of other sexually transmitted infections, but increased both planned and unplanned pregnancies.

Suggested Citation

  • Spencer, Melissa K., 2024. "Safer sex? The effect of AIDS risk on birth rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:95:y:2024:i:c:s0167629624000122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2024.102867
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; STI; Fertility; Birth rate; Epidemic; Infectious disease; Family structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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