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Contraception and Fertility: Household Production under Uncertainty

In: Household Production and Consumption

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  • Robert T. Michael
  • Robert J. Willis

Abstract

Over the past century fertility behavior in the United Stated has undergone profound changes Measured by cohort fertility the average number of children per married woman had declined from about 5.5 children at the time of the Civil War to 2.4 children at the time of the Great Depression. It is seldom emphasized however that an even greater relative change took place in the dispersion of fertility among these women: the percentage of women with, say, seven or more children declined from 36% to under 6%. While students of population have offered reasonably convincing explanations for the decline in fertility over time, they have not succeeded in explaining the fluctuations in the trend and have made surprisingly little effort to explain the large and systematic decline in the dispersion of fertility over time. In this paper we attempt to study contraception behavior and its effects on fertility. One of the effects on which we focus considerable attention is the dispersion or variance in fertility. Our analysis is applied to cross-sectional data but it also provides an explanation for the decline in the variance in fertility over time.
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Suggested Citation

  • Robert T. Michael & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Contraception and Fertility: Household Production under Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Household Production and Consumption, pages 25-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:3960
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mincer, Jacob & Polachek, Solomon, 1974. "Family Investment in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 76-108, Part II, .
    2. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    3. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    4. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1973. "Economic Analysis of Fertility in Israel: Point and Counterpoint," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 202-233, Part II, .
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    6. Theodore W. Schultz, 1974. "Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number schu74-2.
    7. Michael, Robert T, 1973. "Education and the Derived Demand for Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 128-164, Part II, .
    8. Theodore W. Schultz, 1973. "New Economic Approaches to Fertility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number schu73-1.
    9. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1961_16n4_0636 is not listed on IDEAS
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