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Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline

In: Human Capital in History: The American Record

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  • Martha J. Bailey
  • Melanie Guldi
  • Brad J. Hershbein

Abstract

Dramatic fertility swings over the last 100 years have been the subject of large literatures in demography and economics. Recent research has claimed that the post-1960 fertility decline is exceptional enough to constitute a "Second Demographic Transition." The empirical case for a Second Demographic Transition, however, rests largely on comparisons of the post-1960 period with the baby boom era, which was itself exceptional in many ways. Our analysis of the U.S. instead compares the fertility decline in the 1960s and 1970s to the earlier 20th century fertility decline, especially the 1920s and 1930s. Our findings affirm that both periods experienced similar declines in fertility rates and that the affected cohorts averaged the same number of children born over their lifetimes. In contrast to conventional wisdom, the mean age of household formation (by marriage or non-marital cohabitation) and first birth are almost identical for women reaching childbearing age in the 1920s and 1930s and today. Three features, however, distinguish the post-1960 period: (1) the convergence in the distribution of completed childbearing around a two-child mode and a decrease in childlessness; (2) the decoupling of marriage and motherhood; and (3) a transformation in the relationship between the educational attainment of mothers and childbearing outcomes. These three features of the 20th century fertility decline have implications for children's opportunities, children's educational achievement, and widening inequality in U.S. labor markets.
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Suggested Citation

  • Martha J. Bailey & Melanie Guldi & Brad J. Hershbein, 2014. "Is There a Case for a "Second Demographic Transition"? Three Distinctive Features of the Post-1960 U.S. Fertility Decline," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital in History: The American Record, pages 273-312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12894
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    3. Paserman, Daniele & Olivetti, Claudia & Salisbury, Laura & Weber, E. Anna, 2020. "Who Married, (to) Whom, and Where? Trends in Marriage in the United States, 1850-1940," CEPR Discussion Papers 15484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cristina Borra & Libertad González Luna & David Patiño, 2021. "Maternal age and infant health," Economics Working Papers 1791, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Caroline Sten Hartnett & Alison Gemmill, 2020. "Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2035-2045, December.
    6. Albanesi, Stefania & Olivetti, Claudia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2022. "Families, labor markets and policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118038, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Lundberg, Shelly & Pollak, Robert, 2013. "Cohabitation and the Uneven Retreat from Marriage in the U.S., 1950-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 7607, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Carlos Brambila-Paz, 2017. "Households, Families and Prospective Economic Mobility in Mexico," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 582-595, December.
    9. Shelly Lundberg & Robert A. Pollak & Jenna Stearns, 2016. "Family Inequality: Diverging Patterns in Marriage, Cohabitation, and Childbearing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 79-102, Spring.
    10. Alícia Adserà, 2017. "The future fertility of highly educated women: the role of educational composition shifts and labor market barriers," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 019-25.
    11. Mikaela Brough & Paula Sheppard, 2022. "Fertility Decision-Making in the UK: Insights from a Qualitative Study among British Men and Women," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-22, September.
    12. T. Terry Cheung, 2022. "Schooling, Skill Demand and Differential Fertility in the Process of Structural Transformation," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A006, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    13. Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2015. "Short and Long-Term Effects of Unemployment on Fertility," CEP Discussion Papers dp1387, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Alícia Adserà, 2017. "Education and fertility in the context of rising inequality," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 063-94.
    15. Glitz, Albrecht & Wissmann, Daniel, 2021. "Skill Premiums and the Supply of Young Workers in Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    16. Chinhui Juhn & Kristin McCue, 2017. "Specialization Then and Now: Marriage, Children, and the Gender Earnings Gap across Cohorts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 183-204, Winter.
    17. Robert A. Pollak, 2016. "Marriage Market Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 22309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Karen Clay & Margarita Portnykh & Edson Severnini, 2021. "Toxic Truth: Lead and Fertility," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(5), pages 975-1012.
    19. Buckles, Kasey, 2017. "Maternal Socio-Economic Status and the Well-Being of the Next Generation(s)," IZA Discussion Papers 10714, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Martha J. Bailey & Olga Malkova & Zoë M. McLaren, 2017. "Does Parents’ Access to Family Planning Increase Children’s Opportunities? Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X," NBER Working Papers 23971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Hill, Matthew J., 2015. "Easterlin revisited: Relative income and the baby boom," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 71-85.
    22. Martha J. Bailey & Jason M. Lindo, 2017. "Access and Use of Contraception and Its Effects on Women’s Outcomes in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Natasha V. Pilkauskas & Mariana Amorim & Rachel E. Dunifon, 2020. "Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870–2018," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2269-2296, December.
    24. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    25. Martha J. Bailey & Olga Malkova & Zoe M. McLaren, 2017. "Does Parents� Access To Family Planning Increase Children�S Opportunities? Evidence From The War On Poverty And The Early Years Of Title X," Working Papers 17-67, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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