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Demographic consequences of HIV

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  • Martin Karlsson
  • Stefan Pichler

Abstract

In this study, we estimate the effect of the HIV epidemic on demographic outcomes in three countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. We apply the synthetic control group method and estimate the consequences for life expectancy, mortality, and birth rates. According to standard measures of fit, the method seems to perform well for all countries and outcomes. Our results show a large effect on life expectancy and mortality in two countries, and a small and insignificant effect on birth rates. The impact of the pandemic is very heterogeneous. In Mozambique, the impact of HIV on life expectancy and mortality appears to have been surprisingly small. This heterogeneity is not due to AIDS causing fewer deaths in Mozambique than in the two other countries. Instead, the net effect of HIV in Mozambique appears to be diminished by reduced mortality for other causes—in particular child mortality, respiratory infections, and injuries. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Karlsson & Stefan Pichler, 2015. "Demographic consequences of HIV," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1097-1135, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:28:y:2015:i:4:p:1097-1135
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-015-0547-y
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Fertility

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    Cited by:

    1. Sonia Bhalotra & Martin Karlsson & Therese Nilsson & Nina Schwarz, 2022. "Infant Health, Cognitive Performance, and Earnings: Evidence from Inception of the Welfare State in Sweden," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1138-1156, November.
    2. Stefan Pichler & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2020. "Labor Market Effects of U.S. Sick Pay Mandates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 55(2), pages 611-659.
    3. Björn Falkenhall & Jonas Månsson & Sofia Tano, 2020. "Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(2), pages 824-850, April.
    4. Portner, Claus C., 2023. "How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different?," SocArXiv jf9um, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8016, CESifo.
    6. Mette Ejrnæs & Esteban García-Miralles & Mette Gørtz & Petter Lundborg, 2023. "When death was postponed: the effect of hiv medication on work, savings and marriage," Working Papers 2317, Banco de España.
    7. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 10834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Spencer, Melissa K., 2024. "Safer sex? The effect of AIDS risk on birth rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Yoo-Mi Chin & Nicholas Wilson, 2018. "Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 429-451, April.
    10. Mette Ejrnæs & Esteban García-Miralles & Mette Gørtz & Petter Lundborg, 2022. "When Death was Postponed: The Effect of HIV Medication on Work and Marriage," CEBI working paper series 22-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV; AIDS; Mortality; Life expectancy; Fertility; Synthetic control groups; I15; J11; O15.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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