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An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Kircher

    (LSE and University of Edinburgh)

  • Michele Tertilt

    (University of Mannheim)

  • Cezar Santos

    (University of Mannheim)

  • Jeremy Greenwood

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Kircher & Michele Tertilt & Cezar Santos & Jeremy Greenwood, 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," 2013 Meeting Papers 195, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:195
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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