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The long downturn: The impact of the great lockdown on formal employment

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  • Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren
  • Silverio-Murillo, Adan
  • Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto

Abstract

In this paper, we use administrative data covering Mexico’s formal labor market to investigate the employment effects of the Great Lockdown (GL). Our results show that the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown caused Mexico’s formal sector to contract by 5% by November of 2020. By August, men’s jobs started to recover, while women’s jobs remain stagnant. We then document heterogeneous effects by age, income, size of the firms, and economic sector activity. The most affected economic agents during the pandemic include the youngest workers (15–29- years-old), oldest workers (over 60 years old), low-income earners, small-sized firms (6−50 workers), medium-sized firms (51−250 workers), workers in the construction industry, and the hospitality-focused service sectors. Finally, we test different state-level factors that may explain heterogeneity within Mexico: state-level reopenings and lockdowns, infection risk, and stimulus payments. Our findings suggest more considerable employment losses in states that experienced successive lockdowns.

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  • Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren & Silverio-Murillo, Adan & Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto, 2021. "The long downturn: The impact of the great lockdown on formal employment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:115:y:2021:i:c:s0148619521000011
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2021.105983
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    Cited by:

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    2. Minoru Higa & Carlos Ospino & Fernando Aragon, 2023. "The persistent effects of COVID-19 on labour outcomes: evidence from Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1065-1076, May.
    3. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Leonardo Bonilla‐Mejía & Jose Pulido & Luz A. Flórez & Didier Hermida & Karen L. Pulido‐Mahecha & Francisco Lasso‐Valderrama, 2022. "Effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Colombian labour market: Disentangling the effect of sector‐specific mobility restrictions," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 308-357, February.
    4. M. V. Kurbatova & I. V. Donova, 2023. "Labor Markets in Resource-Type Regions: Shocks of 2020," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 252-259, June.
    5. Lauren Hoehn-Velasco & Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar & Adan Silverio-Murillo & Sherajum Monira Farin, 2023. "Marriage and divorce during a pandemic: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marital formation and dissolution in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 757-788, September.
    6. Jose Carlos Saavedra & Pablo Lavado & Sebastián Lindley & Liz Villegas, 2021. "Impacto de las medidas para la mitigación de la Covid - 19 en la Salud y en la Economía para Latinoamérica y Perú," Working Papers 181, Peruvian Economic Association.
    7. Wolter H. J. Hassink & Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2021. "Regional Coronavirus Hotspots During the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(2), pages 127-140, May.
    8. Lara Bellotti & Sara Zaniboni & Cristian Balducci & Gudela Grote, 2021. "Rapid Review on COVID-19, Work-Related Aspects, and Age Differences," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-24, May.
    9. Esteban López Ochoa & Juan Eberhard & Patricio Aroca, 2023. "COVID‐19 and employment relief programs: A tale of spatially blind policies for a spatially driven pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 864-897, September.
    10. Rosmadi Fauzi & Mariney Mohd Yusoff & Abd Rahman Roslan & Siti Nadira Ahmad Rozlan & Muhammad Fathi Marzuki & Mohd Muslim Said & Kamaruzaman Jusoff, 2023. "Measuring the Struggle of Small-Scale Businesses in the COVID-19 Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Egana-delSol, Pablo & Cruz, Gabriel & Micco, Alejandro, 2022. "COVID-19 and automation in a developing economy: Evidence from Chile," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. M. Yu. Malkina, 2022. "Revenues of Russian Subfederal Budgets under the Pandemic: A Spatial Reversal," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 544-555, December.
    13. Grace Armijos-Bravo & Segundo Camino-Mogro, 2023. "Covid-19 Lockdown in Ecuador: Are there Gender Differences in Unemployment?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(6), pages 833-853, June.
    14. Chao Dai & Yuan Tan & Shuangping Cao & Hong Liao & Jie Pu & Haiyan Huang & Weiguang Cai, 2024. "Analysis and Short-Term Peak Forecasting of the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in the Construction Industry at the Provincial Level in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-15, August.
    15. Qi Zhang & Xinxin Zhang & Qi Cui & Weining Cao & Ling He & Yexin Zhou & Xiaofan Li & Yunpeng Fan, 2022. "The Unequal Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labour Market and Income Inequality in China: A Multisectoral CGE Model Analysis Coupled with a Micro-Simulation Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-21, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Labor; Latin America; Mexico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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