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Validated real-time energy models for small-scale grid-connected PV-systems

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  • Ayompe, L.M.
  • Duffy, A.
  • McCormack, S.J.
  • Conlon, M.

Abstract

This paper presents validated real-time energy models for small-scale grid-connected PV-systems suitable for domestic application. The models were used to predict real-time AC power output from a PV-system in Dublin, Ireland using 30-min intervals of measured performance data between April 2009 and March 2010. Statistical analysis of the predicted results and measured data highlight possible sources of errors and the limitations and/or adequacy of existing models, to describe the temperature and efficiency of PV-cells and consequently, the accuracy of power prediction models. PV-system AC output power predictions using empirical models for PV-cell temperature and efficiency prediction showed lower percentage mean absolute errors (PMAEs) of 7.9–11.7% while non-empirical models had errors of 10.0–12.4%. Cumulative errors for PV-system AC output power predictions were 1.3% for empirical models and 3.3% for non-empirical models. The proposed models are suitable for predicting PV-system AC output power at time intervals suitable for smart metering.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayompe, L.M. & Duffy, A. & McCormack, S.J. & Conlon, M., 2010. "Validated real-time energy models for small-scale grid-connected PV-systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4086-4091.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:10:p:4086-4091
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.06.021
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    13. Copper, J.K. & Sproul, A.B. & Jarnason, S., 2016. "Photovoltaic (PV) performance modelling in the absence of onsite measured plane of array irradiance (POA) and module temperature," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 760-769.
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    15. Yang Hu & Weiwei Lian & Yutong Han & Songyuan Dai & Honglu Zhu, 2018. "A Seasonal Model Using Optimized Multi-Layer Neural Networks to Forecast Power Output of PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
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    17. Watts, David & Valdés, Marcelo F. & Jara, Danilo & Watson, Andrea, 2015. "Potential residential PV development in Chile: The effect of Net Metering and Net Billing schemes for grid-connected PV systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1037-1051.
    18. Alagoz, B. Baykant & Kaygusuz, Asim & Akcin, Murat & Alagoz, Serkan, 2013. "A closed-loop energy price controlling method for real-time energy balancing in a smart grid energy market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-104.
    19. Su, Yan & Chan, Lai-Cheong & Shu, Lianjie & Tsui, Kwok-Leung, 2012. "Real-time prediction models for output power and efficiency of grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 319-326.
    20. Alagoz, B.B. & Kaygusuz, A. & Karabiber, A., 2012. "A user-mode distributed energy management architecture for smart grid applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 167-177.

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