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A Seasonal Model Using Optimized Multi-Layer Neural Networks to Forecast Power Output of PV Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Hu

    (The School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Weiwei Lian

    (The School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Yutong Han

    (The School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Songyuan Dai

    (The School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
    The State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
    The Beijing Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Honglu Zhu

    (The School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
    The State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China
    The Beijing Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

With the continuous increase of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity and the urgent demand of synergetic utilization with the other power generation forms, the high-precision prediction of PV power generation is increasingly important for the optimal scheduling and safe operation of the grid. In order to improve the power prediction accuracy, using the response characteristics of PV array under different environmental conditions, a data driven multi-model power prediction method for PV power generation is proposed, based on the seasonal meteorological features. Firstly, through the analysis of PV power characteristics in typical seasons and seasonal distribution of the weather factors, such as solar irradiance and ambient temperature, the influences of different weather factors on PV power prediction are studied. Then, according to the meteorology characteristics of Beijing, different seasons can be divided. The historical data corresponding to different seasons are acquired and then the seasonal PV power forecasting models are established based on optimized multi-layer back propagation neural network (BPNN), realizing the multi-model prediction of PV power. Finally, effectiveness of the seasonal PV power forecasting method is compared and validated. The performance analysis of the neural network forecasting model under typical seasonal conditions shows that the multi-model forecasting method based on seasonal characteristics of PV power generation is better than that of single power forecasting model for the whole year. The results show that the proposed method can effectively improve the power forecasting accuracy of PV power.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Hu & Weiwei Lian & Yutong Han & Songyuan Dai & Honglu Zhu, 2018. "A Seasonal Model Using Optimized Multi-Layer Neural Networks to Forecast Power Output of PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:326-:d:129927
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yusen Wang & Wenlong Liao & Yuqing Chang, 2018. "Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Short-Term Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Sabadus, Andreea & Blaga, Robert & Hategan, Sergiu-Mihai & Calinoiu, Delia & Paulescu, Eugenia & Mares, Oana & Boata, Remus & Stefu, Nicoleta & Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel, 2024. "A cross-sectional survey of deterministic PV power forecasting: Progress and limitations in current approaches," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    3. Abdul Rauf Bhatti & Ahmed Bilal Awan & Walied Alharbi & Zainal Salam & Abdullah S. Bin Humayd & Praveen R. P. & Kankar Bhattacharya, 2021. "An Improved Approach to Enhance Training Performance of ANN and the Prediction of PV Power for Any Time-Span without the Presence of Real-Time Weather Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Wentao Ma & Lihong Qiu & Fengyuan Sun & Sherif S. M. Ghoneim & Jiandong Duan, 2022. "PV Power Forecasting Based on Relevance Vector Machine with Sparrow Search Algorithm Considering Seasonal Distribution and Weather Type," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Ali Bagheri & Véronique Feldheim & Christos S. Ioakimidis, 2018. "On the Evolution and Application of the Thermal Network Method for Energy Assessments in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, April.
    7. Shree Krishna Acharya & Young-Min Wi & Jaehee Lee, 2021. "Weather Data Mixing Models for Day-Ahead PV Forecasting in Small-Scale PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-16, May.

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