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A new multi-objective ensemble wind speed forecasting system: Mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm

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  • Yang, Wendong
  • Zang, Xinyi
  • Wu, Chunying
  • Hao, Yan

Abstract

Improving wind speed prediction is essential for increasing the use of wind energy and promoting sustainable utilization of resources. Most previous studies relied on single-valued data with a common frequency, resulting in limited wind energy utilization. To fill this research gap and strengthen the precision of wind speed prediction, this study proposes a new multi-objective ensemble forecasting system based on a mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm for power system decision-making. The system comprises three modules: interval-valued data preprocessing module, mixed-frequency interval-valued forecasting module, and multi-objective ensemble module. Firstly, to reduce the data complexity by preprocessing the mixed-frequency interval-valued wind speed data, an interval-valued data preprocessing module is designed. Then, different types of prediction models, including a mixed data sampling model, two artificial intelligence models, and a traditional statistical model, are used to predict each subsequence in the mixed-frequency interval-valued forecasting module. Finally, a multi-objective ensemble module is designed to ensemble the interval-valued prediction results of each sub-model, and the final interval-valued wind speed forecast results are obtained. The proposed system obtained IMAE values of 0.4634 and 0.3452 at sites from Inner Mongolia and Penglai, China, respectively; this provides a significant tool for wind speed prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Wendong & Zang, Xinyi & Wu, Chunying & Hao, Yan, 2024. "A new multi-objective ensemble wind speed forecasting system: Mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:304:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224017365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131963
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