IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v298y2024ics0360544224011186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of wind and PV power by fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a PSO-BiLSTM model

Author

Listed:
  • Peng, Simin
  • Zhu, Junchao
  • Wu, Tiezhou
  • Yuan, Caichenran
  • Cang, Junjie
  • Zhang, Kai
  • Pecht, Michael

Abstract

Accurate prediction of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power is essential to ensure the stable operation of power systems. However, the conventional power prediction methods face the challenges in capturing the stochastic fluctuations of wind and PV power. A wind and PV power prediction method fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM) model is developed. To illustrate the oscillation and instability of wind and PV power, the symplectic geometry model decomposition (SGMD) is presented to decompose the feature data and obtain multiple feature sub-sequences. Due to the excessive feature decomposition using the conventional methods, such as empirical modal decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis is utilized to reduce the dimensionality of the nonlinear sub-sequences of the wind and PV power. Compared to the traditional LSTM that ignores the inverse-time correlation between power and meteorological features and is sensitive to the model hyper-parameters, a power prediction model based on PSO-BiLSTM is developed. Using the power data from a power station in Xinjiang Province, China, as an example, the experimental results show that wind and PV power can be accurately forecasted using the developed method with high prediction accuracies of 97.9 % and 98.5 %, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Simin & Zhu, Junchao & Wu, Tiezhou & Yuan, Caichenran & Cang, Junjie & Zhang, Kai & Pecht, Michael, 2024. "Prediction of wind and PV power by fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a PSO-BiLSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:298:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224011186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224011186
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hou, Guolian & Wang, Junjie & Fan, Yuzhen, 2024. "Multistep short-term wind power forecasting model based on secondary decomposition, the kernel principal component analysis, an enhanced arithmetic optimization algorithm, and error correction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    2. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2023. "Dual stream network with attention mechanism for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    3. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Gao, Bixuan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Shi, Junsheng & Tai, Yonghang & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Hourly forecasting of solar irradiance based on CEEMDAN and multi-strategy CNN-LSTM neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1665-1683.
    5. Abou Houran, Mohamad & Salman Bukhari, Syed M. & Zafar, Muhammad Hamza & Mansoor, Majad & Chen, Wenjie, 2023. "COA-CNN-LSTM: Coati optimization algorithm-based hybrid deep learning model for PV/wind power forecasting in smart grid applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    6. Peng, Simin & Miao, Yifan & Xiong, Rui & Bai, Jiawei & Cheng, Mengzeng & Pecht, Michael, 2024. "State of charge estimation for a parallel battery pack jointly by fuzzy-PI model regulator and adaptive unscented Kalman filter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    7. Meng, Anbo & Zhu, Zibin & Deng, Weisi & Ou, Zuhong & Lin, Shan & Wang, Chenen & Xu, Xuancong & Wang, Xiaolin & Yin, Hao & Luo, Jianqiang, 2022. "A novel wind power prediction approach using multivariate variational mode decomposition and multi-objective crisscross optimization based deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    8. Simin Peng & Liyang Zhu & Zhenlan Dou & Dandan Liu & Ruixin Yang & Michael Pecht, 2023. "Method of Site Selection and Capacity Setting for Battery Energy Storage System in Distribution Networks with Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-13, May.
    9. Yu, Quanqing & Nie, Yuwei & Peng, Simin & Miao, Yifan & Zhai, Chengzhi & Zhang, Runfeng & Han, Jinsong & Zhao, Shuo & Pecht, Michael, 2023. "Evaluation of the safety standards system of power batteries for electric vehicles in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    10. Chung, Won Hee & Gu, Yeong Hyeon & Yoo, Seong Joon, 2022. "District heater load forecasting based on machine learning and parallel CNN-LSTM attention," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    11. Scott, Connor & Ahsan, Mominul & Albarbar, Alhussein, 2023. "Machine learning for forecasting a photovoltaic (PV) generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    12. Elizabeth Michael, Neethu & Hasan, Shazia & Al-Durra, Ahmed & Mishra, Manohar, 2022. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting based on a novel Bayesian optimized deep Long Short-Term Memory neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    13. Peng, Simin & Sun, Yunxiang & Liu, Dandan & Yu, Quanqing & Kan, Jiarong & Pecht, Michael, 2023. "State of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on multi-health features extraction and improved long short-term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    14. Neshat, Mehdi & Nezhad, Meysam Majidi & Mirjalili, Seyedali & Garcia, Davide Astiaso & Dahlquist, Erik & Gandomi, Amir H., 2023. "Short-term solar radiation forecasting using hybrid deep residual learning and gated LSTM recurrent network with differential covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    15. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    16. liu, Qian & li, Yulin & jiang, Hang & chen, Yilin & zhang, Jiang, 2024. "Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on multiple mode decomposition and parallel bidirectional long short term combined with convolutional neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    17. Kim, H.J. & Kim, M.K., 2023. "A novel deep learning-based forecasting model optimized by heuristic algorithm for energy management of microgrid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peng, Simin & Miao, Yifan & Xiong, Rui & Bai, Jiawei & Cheng, Mengzeng & Pecht, Michael, 2024. "State of charge estimation for a parallel battery pack jointly by fuzzy-PI model regulator and adaptive unscented Kalman filter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    2. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    3. Chen, Fuhao & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Yan, Yamin & Tjernberg, Lina Bertling, 2024. "A novel meta-learning approach for few-shot short-term wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 362(C).
    4. Huang, Songtao & Zhou, Qingguo & Shen, Jun & Zhou, Heng & Yong, Binbin, 2024. "Multistage spatio-temporal attention network based on NODE for short-term PV power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Khan, Shabbir Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2024. "DSPM: Dual sequence prediction model for efficient energy management in micro-grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    6. Yang, Ting & Yang, Zhenning & Li, Fei & Wang, Hengyu, 2024. "A short-term wind power forecasting method based on multivariate signal decomposition and variable selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    7. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    8. Hu, Yue & Liu, Hanjing & Wu, Senzhen & Zhao, Yuan & Wang, Zhijin & Liu, Xiufeng, 2024. "Temporal collaborative attention for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    9. Jiang, Wenjun & Liu, Bo & Liang, Yang & Gao, Huanxiang & Lin, Pengfei & Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang, 2024. "Applicability analysis of transformer to wind speed forecasting by a novel deep learning framework with multiple atmospheric variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    10. Li, Jiale & Song, Zihao & Wang, Xuefei & Wang, Yanru & Jia, Yaya, 2022. "A novel offshore wind farm typhoon wind speed prediction model based on PSO–Bi-LSTM improved by VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    11. Tang, Aihua & Wu, Xinyu & Xu, Tingting & Hu, Yuanzhi & Long, Shengwen & Yu, Quanqing, 2024. "State of health estimation based on inconsistent evolution for lithium-ion battery module," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    12. Heng, Jiani & Hong, Yongmiao & Hu, Jianming & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting based on non-parametric approaches and wind characteristics information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    13. Monica Borunda & Adrián Ramírez & Raul Garduno & Carlos García-Beltrán & Rito Mijarez, 2023. "Enhancing Long-Term Wind Power Forecasting by Using an Intelligent Statistical Treatment for Wind Resource Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-34, December.
    14. Zhang, Chu & Ma, Huixin & Hua, Lei & Sun, Wei & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Peng, Tian, 2022. "An evolutionary deep learning model based on TVFEMD, improved sine cosine algorithm, CNN and BiLSTM for wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    15. Qiu, Lihong & Ma, Wentao & Feng, Xiaoyang & Dai, Jiahui & Dong, Yuzhuo & Duan, Jiandong & Chen, Badong, 2024. "A hybrid PV cluster power prediction model using BLS with GMCC and error correction via RVM considering an improved statistical upscaling technique," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    16. Ziran Yuan & Pengli Zhang & Bo Ming & Xiaobo Zheng & Lu Tian, 2023. "Joint Forecasting Method of Wind and Solar Outputs Considering Temporal and Spatial Correlation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-16, October.
    17. Kui Yang & Bofu Wang & Xiang Qiu & Jiahua Li & Yuze Wang & Yulu Liu, 2022. "Multi-Step Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Models Based on Adaptive Robust Decomposition Coupled with Deep Gated Recurrent Unit," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-24, June.
    18. Wang, Yun & Xu, Houhua & Song, Mengmeng & Zhang, Fan & Li, Yifen & Zhou, Shengchao & Zhang, Lingjun, 2023. "A convolutional Transformer-based truncated Gaussian density network with data denoising for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    19. Konstantinos Blazakis & Yiannis Katsigiannis & Georgios Stavrakakis, 2022. "One-Day-Ahead Solar Irradiation and Windspeed Forecasting with Advanced Deep Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-25, June.
    20. Wu, Qiang & Zheng, Hongling & Guo, Xiaozhu & Liu, Guangqiang, 2022. "Promoting wind energy for sustainable development by precise wind speed prediction based on graph neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 977-992.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:298:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224011186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.