IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v288y2024ics0360544223032176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting method based on the microscale meteorological model and a hybrid deep learning model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Dongqin
  • Hu, Gang
  • Song, Jie
  • Gao, Huanxiang
  • Ren, Hehe
  • Chen, Wenli

Abstract

Wind power, as a renewable alternative to conventional fossil fuel energy sources, exhibits substantial variability owing to fluctuations in wind velocity. In light of this, the present study puts forward a novel approach for spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting. It enables the prediction of multi-step ahead wind speeds at any location within a given region utilizing data from a single anemometer. The hybrid deep learning model and microscale meteorological model are employed to carry out the temporal and spatial wind speed forecasting, respectively. Specifically, we implement an enhanced complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) technique for signal decomposition to improve time series prediction accuracy, followed by prediction of subsequences via the hybrid deep learning model. In addition, instantaneous wind speed is divided into mean and fluctuating components, and they are then predicted by using the wind speed ratios, wind direction variations and correlation relationships between the observation location and the prediction site, obtained by the microscale meteorological model. Finally, the accuracy and reliability of the proposed model are validated against observational data. This innovative approach generates accurate wind speed forecasting in both temporal and spatial domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang & Song, Jie & Gao, Huanxiang & Ren, Hehe & Chen, Wenli, 2024. "A novel spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting method based on the microscale meteorological model and a hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:288:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223032176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129823
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223032176
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129823?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meka, Rajitha & Alaeddini, Adel & Bhaganagar, Kiran, 2021. "A robust deep learning framework for short-term wind power forecast of a full-scale wind farm using atmospheric variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    2. Pan, Xiaoxin & Wang, Long & Wang, Zhongju & Huang, Chao, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on spatial-temporal graph transformer networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    3. Ye, Lin & Dai, Binhua & Li, Zhuo & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Lu, Peng, 2022. "An ensemble method for short-term wind power prediction considering error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    4. Al-qaness, Mohammed A.A. & Ewees, Ahmed A. & Fan, Hong & Abualigah, Laith & Elaziz, Mohamed Abd, 2022. "Boosted ANFIS model using augmented marine predator algorithm with mutation operators for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    5. Jiang, Wenjun & Lin, Pengfei & Liang, Yang & Gao, Huanxiang & Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang, 2023. "A novel hybrid deep learning model for multi-step wind speed forecasting considering pairwise dependencies among multiple atmospheric variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Niu, Xinsong & Wang, Jiyang, 2019. "A combined model based on data preprocessing strategy and multi-objective optimization algorithm for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 519-539.
    7. Bentsen, Lars Ødegaard & Warakagoda, Narada Dilp & Stenbro, Roy & Engelstad, Paal, 2023. "Spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using graph networks and novel Transformer architectures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    8. Aasim, & Singh, S.N. & Mohapatra, Abheejeet, 2019. "Repeated wavelet transform based ARIMA model for very short-term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 758-768.
    9. Li, Ke & Shen, Ruifang & Wang, Zhenguo & Yan, Bowen & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong, 2023. "An efficient wind speed prediction method based on a deep neural network without future information leakage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    10. Sun, Zexian & Zhao, Mingyu & Zhao, Guohong, 2022. "Hybrid model based on VMD decomposition, clustering analysis, long short memory network, ensemble learning and error complementation for short-term wind speed forecasting assisted by Flink platform," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    11. Li, Jiale & Song, Zihao & Wang, Xuefei & Wang, Yanru & Jia, Yaya, 2022. "A novel offshore wind farm typhoon wind speed prediction model based on PSO–Bi-LSTM improved by VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    12. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shao, Huaishuang & Shi, Peiming & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Deguang, 2023. "A spatio-temporal forecasting model using optimally weighted graph convolutional network and gated recurrent unit for wind speed of different sites distributed in an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    13. Yan, Bowen & Shen, Ruifang & Li, Ke & Wang, Zhenguo & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong & Zhang, Le, 2023. "Spatio-temporal correlation for simultaneous ultra-short-term wind speed prediction at multiple locations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    14. Tang, Xiao-Yu & Zhao, Shumian & Fan, Bo & Peinke, Joachim & Stoevesandt, Bernhard, 2019. "Micro-scale wind resource assessment in complex terrain based on CFD coupled measurement from multiple masts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 806-815.
    15. Wang, Jianing & Zhu, Hongqiu & Zhang, Yingjie & Cheng, Fei & Zhou, Can, 2023. "A novel prediction model for wind power based on improved long short-term memory neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    16. Geng, Xiulin & Xu, Lingyu & He, Xiaoyu & Yu, Jie, 2021. "Graph optimization neural network with spatio-temporal correlation learning for multi-node offshore wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1014-1025.
    17. Yu, Chuanjin & Li, Yongle & Chen, Qian & Lai, Xiaopan & Zhao, Liyang, 2022. "Matrix-based wavelet transformation embedded in recurrent neural networks for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    18. Hu, Weicheng & Yang, Qingshan & Chen, Hua-Peng & Yuan, Ziting & Li, Chen & Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Jian, 2021. "Wind field characteristics over hilly and complex terrain in turbulent boundary layers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    19. Yu, Guangzheng & Liu, Chengquan & Tang, Bo & Chen, Rusi & Lu, Liu & Cui, Chaoyue & Hu, Yue & Shen, Lingxu & Muyeen, S.M., 2022. "Short term wind power prediction for regional wind farms based on spatial-temporal characteristic distribution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 599-612.
    20. Bastos, Bruno Quaresma & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Milidiú, Ruy Luiz, 2021. "U-Convolutional model for spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 949-970.
    21. Erdem, Ergin & Shi, Jing, 2011. "ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1405-1414, April.
    22. Wu, Jie & Li, Na & Zhao, Yan & Wang, Jujie, 2022. "Usage of correlation analysis and hypothesis test in optimizing the gated recurrent unit network for wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    23. Santamaría-Bonfil, G. & Reyes-Ballesteros, A. & Gershenson, C., 2016. "Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: A method based on support vector regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 790-809.
    24. Wu, Huijuan & Meng, Keqilao & Fan, Daoerji & Zhang, Zhanqiang & Liu, Qing, 2022. "Multistep short-term wind speed forecasting using transformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    25. Yang, Qiuling & Deng, Changhong & Chang, Xiqiang, 2022. "Ultra-short-term / short-term wind speed prediction based on improved singular spectrum analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 36-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Shengmao & Wang, Shu & Xu, Xuefang & Li, Ruixiong & Shi, Peiming, 2024. "GAOformer: An adaptive spatiotemporal feature fusion transformer utilizing GAT and optimizable graph matrixes for offshore wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    2. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    3. Sun, Xiaoying & Liu, Haizhong, 2024. "Multivariate short-term wind speed prediction based on PSO-VMD-SE-ICEEMDAN two-stage decomposition and Att-S2S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    4. Zhao, Ning & Su, Yi & Dai, Xianxing & Jia, Shaomin & Wang, Xuewei, 2024. "A new decomposition-ensemble strategy fusion with correntropy optimization learning algorithms for short-term wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    5. Jiang, Wenjun & Liu, Bo & Liang, Yang & Gao, Huanxiang & Lin, Pengfei & Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang, 2024. "Applicability analysis of transformer to wind speed forecasting by a novel deep learning framework with multiple atmospheric variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    6. Wu, Tangjie & Ling, Qiang, 2024. "STELLM: Spatio-temporal enhanced pre-trained large language model for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    7. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Lv, Yunlong & Hu, Qin & Xu, Hang & Lin, Huiyao & Wu, Yufan, 2024. "An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    9. Qu, Zhijian & Hou, Xinxing & Li, Jian & Hu, Wenbo, 2024. "Short-term wind farm cluster power prediction based on dual feature extraction and quadratic decomposition aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    10. Chen, Zhengganzhe & Zhang, Bin & Du, Chenglong & Meng, Wei & Meng, Anbo, 2024. "A novel dynamic spatio-temporal graph convolutional network for wind speed interval prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    11. Yang, Wendong & Zang, Xinyi & Wu, Chunying & Hao, Yan, 2024. "A new multi-objective ensemble wind speed forecasting system: Mixed-frequency interval-valued modeling paradigm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    12. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    13. Yang, Ting & Yang, Zhenning & Li, Fei & Wang, Hengyu, 2024. "A short-term wind power forecasting method based on multivariate signal decomposition and variable selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    14. Wang, Yufeng & Yang, Zihan & Ma, Jianhua & Jin, Qun, 2024. "A wind speed forecasting framework for multiple turbines based on adaptive gate mechanism enhanced multi-graph attention networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    15. Li, Dan & Jiang, Fuxin & Chen, Min & Qian, Tao, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid decomposition method and temporal convolutional networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    16. Suo, Leiming & Peng, Tian & Song, Shihao & Zhang, Chu & Wang, Yuhan & Fu, Yongyan & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2023. "Wind speed prediction by a swarm intelligence based deep learning model via signal decomposition and parameter optimization using improved chimp optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    17. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Tang, Yong & Zhao, Yongning & Zhong, Wuzhi & Qu, Ying & Zhai, Bingxu, 2021. "Ultra-short-term combined prediction approach based on kernel function switch mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 842-866.
    18. Wu, Tangjie & Ling, Qiang, 2024. "Self-supervised dynamic stochastic graph network for spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    19. Xiang, Ling & Fu, Xiaomengting & Yao, Qingtao & Zhu, Guopeng & Hu, Aijun, 2024. "A novel model for ultra-short term wind power prediction based on Vision Transformer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    20. Saeed, Adnan & Li, Chaoshun & Gan, Zhenhao, 2024. "Short-term wind speed interval prediction using improved quality-driven loss based gated multi-scale convolutional sequence model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:288:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223032176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.