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Future costs of fuel cell electric vehicles in California using a learning rate approach

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  • Ruffini, Eleonora
  • Wei, Max

Abstract

Many countries and regions of the world are pursuing aggressive decarbonization policies in the transportation sector aiming to sharply reduce the sales of conventional gasoline and diesel-powered internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), have zero tailpipe emissions, but still can be considerably more expensive than ICEVs, which is one key factor hampering their wide-scale adoption. Still, many decarbonization roadmaps and plans call for a large ramp up of ZEVs in coming years. For example, the International Energy Agency's aggressive 2DS high H2 scenario estimates 11 M BEVs and 4 M FCEVs sold in 2030 and California has also set aggressive sales targets under its ZEV Mandate. This paper provides a detailed life cycle cost analysis comparison for FCEV versus other vehicle technologies, assuming these international adoption scenarios are implemented using a learning rate approach. Results show that the fuel cell system is the key factor in making FCEV life cycle costs comparable to ICEV costs. With an 18% learning rate, FCEVs are estimated to be cost competitive with ICEVs by 2025, but with an 8% learning rate, this cost-competitive point is pushed out almost 25 years.

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  • Ruffini, Eleonora & Wei, Max, 2018. "Future costs of fuel cell electric vehicles in California using a learning rate approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 329-341.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:150:y:2018:i:c:p:329-341
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.02.071
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    6. Teng, Fei & Zhang, Qi & Chen, Siyuan & Wang, Ge & Huang, Zhenyue & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Comprehensive effects of policy mixes on the diffusion of heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks in China considering technology learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Seungho Jeon & Minyoung Roh & Almas Heshmati & Suduk Kim, 2020. "An Assessment of Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Cars in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-13, September.
    8. Badji, Abderrezak & Abdeslam, Djaffar Ould & Chabane, Djafar & Benamrouche, Nacereddine, 2022. "Real-time implementation of improved power frequency approach based energy management of fuel cell electric vehicle considering storage limitations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    9. Muhammad Asyraf Azni & Rasyikah Md Khalid, 2021. "Hydrogen Fuel Cell Legal Framework in the United States, Germany, and South Korea—A Model for a Regulation in Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    10. Zhou, Li & Duan, Maosheng & Yu, Yadong & Zhang, Xiliang, 2018. "Learning rates and cost reduction potential of indirect coal-to-liquid technology coupled with CO2 capture," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 21-32.
    11. Nenming Wang & Guwen Tang, 2022. "A Review on Environmental Efficiency Evaluation of New Energy Vehicles Using Life Cycle Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-35, March.
    12. Zhao, Jinyang & Yu, Yadong & Ren, Hongtao & Makowski, Marek & Granat, Janusz & Nahorski, Zbigniew & Ma, Tieju, 2022. "How the power-to-liquid technology can contribute to reaching carbon neutrality of the China's transportation sector?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    13. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Gao, Jiayang & Xu, Xianglong & Zhang, Tao, 2024. "Forecasting the development of Clean energy vehicles in large Cities: A system dynamics perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    15. Zakerinia, Saleh, 2018. "Understanding the Role of Transportation in Meeting California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target: A Focus on Technology Forcing Policies, Interactions with the Electric Sector and Mitigation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0r69m651, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    16. Maria Solakidou & Aikaterini Gemenetzi & Georgia Koutsikou & Marinos Theodorakopoulos & Yiannis Deligiannakis & Maria Louloudi, 2023. "Cost Efficiency Analysis of H 2 Production from Formic Acid by Molecular Catalysts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-36, February.
    17. Low, John M. & Haszeldine, R. Stuart & Mouli-Castillo, Julien, 2023. "Refuelling infrastructure requirements for renewable hydrogen road fuel through the energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
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