IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v192y2024ics0301421524002787.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity generation portfolios in Mexico: Environmental, economic, and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Juárez-Luna, David
  • Mosiño, Alejandro

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the environmental and economic impact of the Electricity Generation Portfolios (EGPs) projected by Mexico’s Secretariat of Energy (SENER 2018) for the years 2023 to 2032. We use real data to calibrate the mean and standard deviation of the unit costs of energy generation and portfolio theory to obtain the efficient EGPs. We develop a methodology for the parametric construction of the efficient frontier of EGPs comprised of eight technologies. In the efficient portfolios, we find the dominant technology in electricity generation to be solar photovoltaics (SP), the share of which in the total ranges from 26.8% to 100%. The efficient EGPs might emit less than half as much CO2 as the projected EGPs. Their electricity generation cost is between 95.4% and 97.4% of that of the projected EGPs. Therefore, the projected EGPs for the years 2023–2032 are not efficient. This analysis supports the case for increasing the proportion of SP in Mexico’s generation portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Juárez-Luna, David & Mosiño, Alejandro, 2024. "Electricity generation portfolios in Mexico: Environmental, economic, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:192:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524002787
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114258
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421524002787
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114258?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    2. María del Carmen Gómez-Ríos & David Juárez-Luna, 2019. "Costo de generación eléctrica incorporando externalidades ambientales: Mezcla óptima de tecnologías de carga base," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 353-377, Julio - S.
    3. Bhattacharya, Anindya & Kojima, Satoshi, 2012. "Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-80.
    4. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    5. McNerney, James & Doyne Farmer, J. & Trancik, Jessika E., 2011. "Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3042-3054, June.
    6. Kobos, Peter H. & Erickson, Jon D. & Drennen, Thomas E., 2006. "Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1658, September.
    7. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    8. Yi Zhou & Alun Gu, 2019. "Learning Curve Analysis of Wind Power and Photovoltaics Technology in US: Cost Reduction and the Importance of Research, Development and Demonstration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Selçuklu, Saltuk Buğra & Coit, D.W. & Felder, F.A., 2023. "Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    10. Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2017. "Investment decisions considering economic, environmental and social factors: An actors' perspective for the electricity sector of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 92-106.
    11. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana, 2010. "Fuel price and technological uncertainty in a real options model for electricity planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(9), pages 2938-2944, September.
    12. David Juárez-Luna, 2021. "Power generation portfolios: A parametric formulation of the efficient frontier," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, Enero - M.
    13. Vidal-Amaro, Juan José & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia, 2015. "Optimal energy mix for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources – The case of the Mexican electricity system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 80-96.
    14. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    15. Wu, Jung-Hua & Huang, Yun-Hsun, 2014. "Electricity portfolio planning model incorporating renewable energy characteristics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 278-287.
    16. Kim, Seunghyok & Koo, Jamin & Lee, Chang Jun & Yoon, En Sup, 2012. "Optimization of Korean energy planning for sustainability considering uncertainties in learning rates and external factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 126-134.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    2. Zhang, Shuang & Zhao, Tao & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2018. "What is the optimal power generation mix of China? An empirical analysis using portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 522-536.
    3. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Flores, Yarela, 2018. "Planning in a changing environment: Applications of portfolio optimisation to deal with risk in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3808-3823.
    4. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2018. "Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 199-212, December.
    6. Kim, Yeong Jae & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Sharma, Bijay P., 2021. "Constructing efficient portfolios of low-carbon technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    7. Elia, A. & Kamidelivand, M. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B., 2021. "Impacts of innovation on renewable energy technology cost reductions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    9. Inzunza, Andrés & Muñoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2021. "Measuring the effects of environmental policies on electricity markets risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Negrete-Pincetic, Matías, 2018. "Portfolio applications in electricity markets review: Private investor and manager perspective trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 192-204.
    11. Ahn, Joongha & Woo, JongRoul & Lee, Jongsu, 2015. "Optimal allocation of energy sources for sustainable development in South Korea: Focus on the electric power generation industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 78-90.
    12. Esmaeil Ahmadi & Benjamin McLellan & Seiichi Ogata & Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo & Tetsuo Tezuka, 2020. "An Integrated Planning Framework for Sustainable Water and Energy Supply," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-37, May.
    13. Ahmadi, Esmaeil & McLellan, Benjamin & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2020. "The economic synergies of modelling the renewable energy-water nexus towards sustainability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1347-1366.
    14. Juárez-Luna, David, 2020. "Beneficios económicos y ambientales de la energía nuclear [Economic and environmental benefits of nuclear energy]," MPRA Paper 98790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & Riesz, Jenny & MacGill, Iain F., 2015. "Using renewables to hedge against future electricity industry uncertainties—An Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 43-56.
    16. Lado-Sestayo, Rubén & De Llano-Paz, Fernando & Vivel-Búa, Milagros & Martínez-Salgueiro, Andrea, 2023. "Commodity exposure in the eurozone: How EU energy security is conditioned by the Euro," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    17. Sascha Samadi, 2016. "A Review of Factors Influencing the Cost Development of Electricity Generation Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-25, November.
    18. Scala, Antonio & Facchini, Angelo & Perna, Umberto & Basosi, Riccardo, 2019. "Portfolio analysis and geographical allocation of renewable sources: A stochastic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 154-159.
    19. Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Fuss, Sabine, 2016. "Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-185.
    20. Zong Woo Geem & Jin-Hong Kim, 2016. "Optimal Energy Mix with Renewable Portfolio Standards in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-14, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portfolio; Generation; Electricity; Unit cost; Solar photovoltaics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:192:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524002787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.