IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v121y2017icp92-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment decisions considering economic, environmental and social factors: An actors' perspective for the electricity sector of Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Jano-Ito, Marco A.
  • Crawford-Brown, Douglas

Abstract

The complex environment for planning created by liberalised electricity sectors, requires the use of frameworks that incorporate the multiple-objective nature of investment and also the behavioural aspect of decision-making. Such framework could aid company managers to select economically efficient, low-carbon and socially accepted energy portfolios given their risk-taking levels. The work presented in this paper was aimed at bringing together decision analysis tools that have traditionally been used separately, and showing its usefulness in the context of the Mexican electricity sector. In order to accomplish this, a novel approach for the combination of multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) and mean-variance portfolio (MVP) theory was established; and multi-attribute portfolios were determined with the aid of real data obtained through interviews and multi-objective optimisation. It was found that when only using MAUT, geothermal energy was favoured. The consideration of risk-aversion in portfolio optimisation highlighted natural gas combined cycles (NGCC) as the highest return option and the attractiveness of wind as an alternative to reduce fossil fuel risk. The extension to multiple attributes presented portfolios with a high share of low-carbon technologies that were not found when only one variable was considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2017. "Investment decisions considering economic, environmental and social factors: An actors' perspective for the electricity sector of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 92-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:121:y:2017:i:c:p:92-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217300166
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Green, 2008. "Carbon Tax or Carbon Permits: The Impact on Generators Risks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 67-90.
    2. Komendantova, Nadejda & Patt, Anthony & Barras, Lucile & Battaglini, Antonella, 2012. "Perception of risks in renewable energy projects: The case of concentrated solar power in North Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-109.
    3. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2010. "Small-medium sized nuclear coal and gas power plant: A probabilistic analysis of their financial performances and influence of CO2 cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6360-6374, October.
    4. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    5. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    6. Sunderkötter, Malte & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Valuing fuel diversification in power generation capacity planning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1664-1674.
    7. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Keeney,Ralph L. & Raiffa,Howard, 1993. "Decisions with Multiple Objectives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521438834, September.
    10. H. Brett Humphreys & Katherine T. McClain, 1998. "Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Through Dynamic Portfolio Selection," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 107-131.
    11. Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
    12. Ralph L. Keeney & John F. Lathrop & Alan Sicherman, 1986. "OR Practice—An Analysis of Baltimore Gas and Electric Company's Technology Choice," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 18-39, February.
    13. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2012. "A Monte Carlo based decision-support tool for assessing generation portfolios in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 374-392.
    14. Malte Sundkötter & Daniel Ziegler, 2013. "Perfect Competition vs. Riskaverse Agents: Technology Portfolio Choice in Electricity Markets," EWL Working Papers 1303, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    15. Hobbs, Benjamin F., 1995. "Optimization methods for electric utility resource planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-20, May.
    16. Dana R. Clyman & Michael R. Walls & James S. Dyer, 1999. "Too Much of a Good Thing?," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(6), pages 957-965, December.
    17. Ralph L. Keeney & Alan Sicherman, 1983. "Illustrative Comparison of One Utility's Coal and Nuclear Choices," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(1), pages 50-83, February.
    18. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-947, June.
    19. Green, Richard, 2002. "Retail Competition and Electricity Contracts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 93, Royal Economic Society.
    20. Strantzali, Eleni & Aravossis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Decision making in renewable energy investments: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 885-898.
    21. Wang, Jiang-Jiang & Jing, You-Yin & Zhang, Chun-Fa & Zhao, Jun-Hong, 2009. "Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2263-2278, December.
    22. Lynch, Muireann Á. & Shortt, Aonghus & Tol, Richard S.J. & O'Malley, Mark J., 2013. "Risk–return incentives in liberalised electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 598-608.
    23. Walls, Michael R & Clyman, Dana R, 1998. "Risky choice, risk sharing and decision analysis: Implications for managers in the resource sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 49-57, March.
    24. Shimon Awerbuch, 2006. "Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 693-710, May.
    25. Ralph L. Keeney, 1983. "A Technology Choice for Model Electricity Generation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    26. Michael R. Walls & James S. Dyer, 1996. "Risk Propensity and Firm Performance: A Study of the Petroleum Exploration Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 1004-1021, July.
    27. Michael R. Walls & G. Thomas Morahan & James S. Dyer, 1995. "Decision Analysis of Exploration Opportunities in the Onshore US at Phillips Petroleum Company," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 39-56, December.
    28. Ralph Steuer & Yue Qi & Markus Hirschberger, 2007. "Suitable-portfolio investors, nondominated frontier sensitivity, and the effect of multiple objectives on standard portfolio selection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 297-317, July.
    29. James G. March & Zur Shapira, 1987. "Managerial Perspectives on Risk and Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(11), pages 1404-1418, November.
    30. Utz, Sebastian & Wimmer, Maximilian & Hirschberger, Markus & Steuer, Ralph E., 2014. "Tri-criterion inverse portfolio optimization with application to socially responsible mutual funds," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 491-498.
    31. Awerbuch, Shimon, 2000. "Investing in photovoltaics: risk, accounting and the value of new technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(14), pages 1023-1035, November.
    32. Ribeiro, Fernando & Ferreira, Paula & Araújo, Madalena, 2011. "The inclusion of social aspects in power planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4361-4369.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Ariel Alexi & Teddy Lazebnik & Labib Shami, 2024. "Microfounded Tax Revenue Forecast Model with Heterogeneous Population and Genetic Algorithm Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 1705-1734, May.
    3. Zhang, Shuang & Zhao, Tao & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2018. "What is the optimal power generation mix of China? An empirical analysis using portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 522-536.
    4. Mirian Bortoluzzi & Marcelo Furlan & Simone Geitenes Colombo & Tatiele Martins Amaral & Celso Correia de Souza & José Francisco dos Reis Neto & Josimar Fernandes de França, 2021. "Combining Value-Focused Thinking and PROMETHEE Techniques for Selecting a Portfolio of Distributed Energy Generation Projects in the Brazilian Electricity Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Lado-Sestayo, Rubén & De Llano-Paz, Fernando & Vivel-Búa, Milagros & Martínez-Salgueiro, Andrea, 2023. "Commodity exposure in the eurozone: How EU energy security is conditioned by the Euro," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    6. Sellak, Hamza & Ouhbi, Brahim & Frikh, Bouchra & Palomares, Iván, 2017. "Towards next-generation energy planning decision-making: An expert-based framework for intelligent decision support," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1544-1577.
    7. Ionel Jianu & Iulia Jianu, 2018. "The Share Price and Investment: Current Footprints for Future Oil and Gas Industry Performance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Jaume Fitó & Julien Ramousse, 2024. "Multi-Stakeholder Decision Support Based on Multicriteria Assessment: Application to Industrial Waste Heat Recovery for a District Heating Network in Grenoble, France," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-25, April.
    9. Hinker, Jonas & Hemkendreis, Christian & Drewing, Emily & März, Steven & Hidalgo Rodríguez, Diego I. & Myrzik, Johanna M.A., 2017. "A novel conceptual model facilitating the derivation of agent-based models for analyzing socio-technical optimality gaps in the energy domain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1219-1230.
    10. Forouli, Aikaterini & Doukas, Haris & Nikas, Alexandros & Sampedro, Jon & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan, 2019. "Identifying optimal technological portfolios for European power generation towards climate change mitigation: A robust portfolio analysis approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-42.
    11. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2018. "Pollutant versus non-pollutant generation technologies: a CML-analogous analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 199-212, December.
    12. Jassem Suaad & Zakaria Zarina & Che Azmi Anna, 2020. "Sustainability Balanced Scorecard Architecture and Environmental Investment Decision-Making," Foundations of Management, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 193-210, January.
    13. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    14. González-Bravo, Ramón & Fuentes-Cortés, Luis Fabián & Ponce-Ortega, José María, 2017. "Defining priorities in the design of power and water distribution networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1026-1040.
    15. Chen, Huadong & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Jianhui, 2018. "Simulating the impact of investment preference on low-carbon transition in power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 440-455.
    16. Kim, Yeong Jae & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Sharma, Bijay P., 2021. "Constructing efficient portfolios of low-carbon technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Flores, Yarela, 2018. "Planning in a changing environment: Applications of portfolio optimisation to deal with risk in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3808-3823.
    2. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro, 2011. "Large and small baseload power plants: Drivers to define the optimal portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7762-7775.
    3. Lynch, Muireann Á. & Shortt, Aonghus & Tol, Richard S.J. & O'Malley, Mark J., 2013. "Risk–return incentives in liberalised electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 598-608.
    4. Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Fuss, Sabine, 2016. "Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-185.
    5. Kim, Yeong Jae & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Sharma, Bijay P., 2021. "Constructing efficient portfolios of low-carbon technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayová, Jana & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewables and climate change mitigation: Irreversible energy investment under uncertainty and portfolio effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 59-68.
    7. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    8. Dornan, Matthew & Jotzo, Frank, 2015. "Renewable technologies and risk mitigation in small island developing states: Fiji’s electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-48.
    9. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco J., 2015. "Mean-variance portfolio methods for energy policy risk management," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 246-264.
    10. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    11. Zhang, Mingming & Tang, Yamei & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Optimal investment portfolio strategies for power enterprises under multi-policy scenarios of renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    12. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    13. Vithayasrichareon, Peerapat & MacGill, Iain F., 2013. "Assessing the value of wind generation in future carbon constrained electricity industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 400-412.
    14. Allan, Grant & Eromenko, Igor & McGregor, Peter & Swales, Kim, 2011. "The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach incorporating marine technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 6-22, January.
    15. Botor, Benjamin & Böcker, Benjamin & Kallabis, Thomas & Weber, Christoph, 2021. "Information shocks and profitability risks for power plant investments – impacts of policy instruments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    17. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    18. Lynch & John Curtis, 2016. "The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 133-151, January.
    19. Fridgen, Gilbert & Halbrügge, Stephanie & Olenberger, Christian & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2020. "The insurance effect of renewable distributed energy resources against uncertain electricity price developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Kitzing, Lena, 2014. "Risk implications of renewable support instruments: Comparative analysis of feed-in tariffs and premiums using a mean–variance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 495-505.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:121:y:2017:i:c:p:92-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.