IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v150y2015icp80-96.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal energy mix for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources – The case of the Mexican electricity system

Author

Listed:
  • Vidal-Amaro, Juan José
  • Østergaard, Poul Alberg
  • Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

Abstract

The establishment of an optimal mix of renewable energy sources (RES) is pertinent to creating low-carbon energy systems with adequate load-following capabilities. Transitioning from a fossil fuel-based energy system to a system based on RES is a process in which the RES penetration must be guided by specific targets in the medium term. Moreover, the relative contributions from RES and fossil fuels in every stage of the transition process must be identified through clear optimization criteria. In this article, we propose a methodology denoted the Minimum Total Mix Capacity (MTMC) to determine the optimal mix of RES and fossil fuels in an electricity system by taking into account the hourly values of RES production and electricity demand. The MTMC methodology is applied to the Mexican electricity system, which greatly depends on fossil fuels. The Mexican Congress mandated that the fossil fuel-based electricity generation be limited to 65% by the year 2024, 60% by 2035 and 50% by 2050. We use the MTMC methodology to investigate the potential for RES integration into the Mexican electricity system by constructing three scenarios (low, mid and high biomass) to achieve the 2024 target and analyze the system’s response to varying contributions of wind and solar power production to the scenarios. The minimum complementary capacity based on fossil fuels that is needed to cover the demand without electricity imports is assessed to determine the total mix capacity for the transition system. Using the MTMC methodology, several combinations of biomass, wind and solar power that achieve a minimum of 35% RES electricity production are identified; however, there is only one combination that results in the minimum overall capacity, hence resulting in the optimal mix. Moreover, a domain of near-optimal mix combinations can be identified among all of the scenarios, which may also be considered as an alternative. Biomass has the highest effectiveness in terms of high RES production and the lowest required overall power generating capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Vidal-Amaro, Juan José & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia, 2015. "Optimal energy mix for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources – The case of the Mexican electricity system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 80-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:150:y:2015:i:c:p:80-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915004353
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2013. "Priority order in using biomass resources – Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-94.
    2. Heide, Dominik & von Bremen, Lueder & Greiner, Martin & Hoffmann, Clemens & Speckmann, Markus & Bofinger, Stefan, 2010. "Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2483-2489.
    3. Lund, Henrik, 2007. "Renewable energy strategies for sustainable development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 912-919.
    4. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul, 2014. "Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 309-320.
    5. Lund, Henrik & Andersen, Anders N. & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David, 2012. "From electricity smart grids to smart energy systems – A market operation based approach and understanding," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 96-102.
    6. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Pican, E. & Leahy, M., 2012. "The technical and economic implications of integrating fluctuating renewable energy using energy storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 47-60.
    7. De Jonghe, Cedric & Delarue, Erik & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Determining optimal electricity technology mix with high level of wind power penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(6), pages 2231-2238, June.
    8. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2011. "100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 488-501, February.
    9. Lund, H. & Möller, B. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Dyrelund, A., 2010. "The role of district heating in future renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1381-1390.
    10. Chao, Hung-po, 2011. "Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3945-3953, July.
    11. Jaramillo, O.A & Saldaña, R & Miranda, U, 2004. "Wind power potential of Baja California Sur, México," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(13), pages 2087-2100.
    12. Cancino-Solórzano, Yoreley & Gutiérrez-Trashorras, Antonio J. & Xiberta-Bernat, Jorge, 2011. "Current state of wind energy in Mexico, achievements and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3552-3557.
    13. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2011. "The first step towards a 100% renewable energy-system for Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 502-507, February.
    14. Ridjan, Iva & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David & Duić, Neven, 2013. "The feasibility of synthetic fuels in renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 76-84.
    15. Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2006. "Ancillary services and the integration of substantial quantities of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(5), pages 451-463, May.
    16. Becker, Sarah & Frew, Bethany A. & Andresen, Gorm B. & Zeyer, Timo & Schramm, Stefan & Greiner, Martin & Jacobson, Mark Z., 2014. "Features of a fully renewable US electricity system: Optimized mixes of wind and solar PV and transmission grid extensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 443-458.
    17. Lamont, Alan D., 2008. "Assessing the long-term system value of intermittent electric generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1208-1231, May.
    18. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    19. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    20. Hedegaard, Karsten & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Heiselberg, Per, 2012. "Wind power integration using individual heat pumps – Analysis of different heat storage options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 284-293.
    21. Ma, Tao & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2014. "An energy system model for Hong Kong in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 301-310.
    22. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    23. Lund, H. & Münster, E., 2003. "Management of surplus electricity-production from a fluctuating renewable-energy source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 65-74, September.
    24. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2011. "Large-scale integration of wind power into the existing Chinese energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4753-4760.
    25. Oropeza-Perez, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2014. "The influence of an estimated energy saving due to natural ventilation on the Mexican energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1080-1091.
    26. Pillai, Jayakrishnan R. & Heussen, Kai & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3233-3243.
    27. Arnette, Andrew & Zobel, Christopher W., 2012. "An optimization model for regional renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 4606-4615.
    28. Rosen, Johannes & Tietze-Stöckinger, Ingela & Rentz, Otto, 2007. "Model-based analysis of effects from large-scale wind power production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 575-583.
    29. Alberg Østergaard, Poul, 2003. "Transmission-grid requirements with scattered and fluctuating renewable electricity-sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 247-255, September.
    30. Islas, J. & Manzini, F. & Martínez, M., 2003. "Cost-benefit analysis of energy scenarios for the Mexican power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 979-992.
    31. Bentsen, Niclas Scott & Jack, Michael W. & Felby, Claus & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark, 2014. "Allocation of biomass resources for minimising energy system greenhouse gas emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 506-515.
    32. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Finn, P. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2011. "Practical operation strategies for pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) utilising electricity price arbitrage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4189-4196, July.
    33. Mourmouris, J.C. & Potolias, C., 2013. "A multi-criteria methodology for energy planning and developing renewable energy sources at a regional level: A case study Thassos, Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 522-530.
    34. Richard Green & Nicholas Vasilakos, 2011. "The Long-term Impact of Wind Power on Electricity Prices and Generating Capacity," Discussion Papers 11-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    35. Mendes, Carla & Soares, Isabel, 2014. "Renewable energies impacting the optimal generation mix: The case of the Iberian Electricity Market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 23-33.
    36. Todd M. Johnson & Claudio Alatorre & Zayra Romo & Feng Liu, 2010. "Low-Carbon Development for Mexico," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2398.
    37. Redclift, Michael, 1989. "Mexico's nuclear paradox," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 6-10, February.
    38. Lund, H., 2006. "Large-scale integration of optimal combinations of PV, wind and wave power into the electricity supply," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 503-515.
    39. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2013. "EXPANSE methodology for evaluating the economic potential of renewable energy from an energy mix perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 593-601.
    40. Gota, Dan-Ioan & Lund, Henrik & Miclea, Liviu, 2011. "A Romanian energy system model and a nuclear reduction strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6413-6419.
    41. Hernández-Escobedo, Q. & Manzano-Agugliaro, F. & Zapata-Sierra, A., 2010. "The wind power of Mexico," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2830-2840, December.
    42. Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2014. "Assessment of massive integration of photovoltaic system considering rechargeable battery in Japan with high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 73-89.
    43. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik, 2011. "A renewable energy system in Frederikshavn using low-temperature geothermal energy for district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 479-487, February.
    44. Tafarte, Philip & Das, Subhashree & Eichhorn, Marcus & Thrän, Daniela, 2014. "Small adaptations, big impacts: Options for an optimized mix of variable renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 80-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Ma, Tao & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2014. "An energy system model for Hong Kong in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 301-310.
    3. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    4. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul, 2014. "Assessment and evaluation of flexible demand in a Danish future energy scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 309-320.
    5. Ma, Weiwu & Xue, Xinpei & Liu, Gang, 2018. "Techno-economic evaluation for hybrid renewable energy system: Application and merits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 385-409.
    6. Mahbub, Md Shahriar & Cozzini, Marco & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Alberti, Fabrizio, 2016. "Combining multi-objective evolutionary algorithms and descriptive analytical modelling in energy scenario design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 140-151.
    7. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2013. "Priority order in using biomass resources – Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-94.
    8. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    9. David Maya-Drysdale & Louise Krog Jensen & Brian Vad Mathiesen, 2020. "Energy Vision Strategies for the EU Green New Deal: A Case Study of European Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Hong, Lixuan & Lund, Henrik & Möller, Bernd, 2012. "The importance of flexible power plant operation for Jiangsu's wind integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 499-507.
    11. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    12. Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Chang, Miguel & Madsen, Poul Thøis & Kany, Mikkel Strunge & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2022. "Smart energy Denmark. A consistent and detailed strategy for a fully decarbonized society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Lund, Henrik & Andersen, Anders N. & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David, 2012. "From electricity smart grids to smart energy systems – A market operation based approach and understanding," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 96-102.
    14. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Local smart energy systems and cross-system integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 812-825.
    15. Nielsen, Steffen & Sorknæs, Peter & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Electricity market auction settings in a future Danish electricity system with a high penetration of renewable energy sources – A comparison of marginal pricing and pay-as-bid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4434-4444.
    16. Hong, Lixuan & Zhou, Nan & Fridley, David & Raczkowski, Chris, 2013. "Assessment of China's renewable energy contribution during the 12th Five Year Plan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1533-1543.
    17. Zakeri, Behnam & Syri, Sanna & Rinne, Samuli, 2015. "Higher renewable energy integration into the existing energy system of Finland – Is there any maximum limit?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 244-259.
    18. Liu, Wen & Hu, Weihao & Lund, Henrik & Chen, Zhe, 2013. "Electric vehicles and large-scale integration of wind power – The case of Inner Mongolia in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 445-456.
    19. Behnam Zakeri & Samuli Rinne & Sanna Syri, 2015. "Wind Integration into Energy Systems with a High Share of Nuclear Power—What Are the Compromises?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, March.
    20. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:150:y:2015:i:c:p:80-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.