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Costo de generación eléctrica incorporando externalidades ambientales: Mezcla óptima de tecnologías de carga base

Author

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  • María del Carmen Gómez-Ríos

    (Universidad Anáhuac México-Norte, México)

  • David Juárez-Luna

    (Universidad Anáhuac México-Norte, México)

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es calcular el Costo Total Nivelado de Generación con Externalidades (CTNGE) de tres tecnologías de carga base: termoeléctrica de carbón, ciclo combinado y central nuclear. Se emplea simulación Monte Carlo para estimar las densidades de probabilidad de los CTNGE. Se emplea la teoría de portafolio para encontrar la mezcla de tecnologías que brinden el CTNGE menos riesgoso y con menor media. Se encuentra que la central nuclear tiene los menores CTNGE. Siendo la termoeléctrica de carbón la tecnología con mayores y más riesgosos CTNGE. El análisis sugiere que, al generar electricidad, conviene dejar fuera a la termoeléctrica de carbón y centrarse en dos tecnologías: ciclo combinado y central nuclear, asignando a ésta última una mayor participación. Una limitante del trabajo es que las densidades de probabilidad de los CTNGE estimadas a través de la simulación Monte Carlo dependen de los datos empleados. El presente análisis sugiere que el CTNGE se puede modificar significativamente al incluir el costo del CO2.

Suggested Citation

  • María del Carmen Gómez-Ríos & David Juárez-Luna, 2019. "Costo de generación eléctrica incorporando externalidades ambientales: Mezcla óptima de tecnologías de carga base," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 353-377, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:3:p:353-377
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emisiones de CO2; Generación; Electricidad; Costos nivelados;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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