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ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA, INDIA, THE E.U. AND THE U.S. UNDER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS FROM SIX IAMs

Author

Listed:
  • JESSICA JEWELL

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria;
    Central European University, Budapest, Hungary)

  • ALEH CHERP

    (Central European University, Budapest, Hungary)

  • VADIM VINICHENKO

    (Central European University, Budapest, Hungary)

  • NICO BAUER

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

  • TOM KOBER

    (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Petten, The Netherlands)

  • DAVID McCOLLUM

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria)

  • DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands;
    Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • BOB VAN DER ZWAAN

    (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Petten, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.

Suggested Citation

  • JESSICA JEWELL & ALEH CHERP & VADIM VINICHENKO & NICO BAUER & TOM KOBER & DAVID McCOLLUM & DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN & BOB VAN DER ZWAAN, 2013. "ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA, INDIA, THE E.U. AND THE U.S. UNDER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS: RESULTS FROM SIX IAMs," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:04:n:s2010007813400113
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400113
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