Globis final report on Integrated Scenarios D30

The final objective of the project is to provide an integrated vision of these four case studies in WP4. This deliverable will specifically analyze the conflicts and synergies between various sustainability issues that stem from these four cross sectors linkages under different visions of globalization and development pathways. The challenge is thus to integrate sector-based analysis in a common economic framework capturing the interplay between innovation, the evolution of life styles, macroeconomic constraints (investments, trade...) in a world experiencing strong economic transitions. This report will then develop a set of comprehensive scenarios at the World and European levels. These numerical experiments will aim at analyzing i) the mechanisms that explain the tensions and synergies between various sustainability issues (climate change, land availability, energy security) under various views of the future of economic globalization and ii) ways to mitigate these tensions within the framework of each scenario. We will specifically assess the implementation of climate policies. CO2 emissions have indeed continued to grow in the past decade even more rapidly than predicted (Peters et al., 2011; Raupach et al., 2007; IPCC, 2014). This context is the result of both the diffculty to decouple growth and carbon emissions in developed regions, where development styles cannot be changed overnight, and the rapid carbon-intensive growth patterns of emerging countries (IEA, 2012). It also highlights the necessity to implement ambitious measures to trigger a strong bifurcation away from carbon-intensive development paths (IPCC, 2007, 2014). Despite this scientific consensus, the implementation of ambitious global carbon emission reduction targets remains highly uncertain as shown by the difficulties to reach a global climate agreement under the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in particular since the failure of the Copenhagen Conference in 2009. This is essentially due to the concerns about (a) significant welfare and economic losses consecutive to carbon restrictions and (b) the interplay of climate measures with other sensitive political issues such as the financial crisis, poverty alleviation, job creation, energy and food security, or health and local environmental protection (e.g., see the dilemma of the climate development Gordian knot discussed in (Hourcade et al., 2008)). An integrated vision between sustainable development and the globalisation process can be a precondition to overcome this dilemma in view of post 2015 climate policies.