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Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach

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  • Ergen, Ibrahim
  • Rizvanoghlu, Islam

Abstract

We investigated the determinants of daily volatility for natural gas nearby-month futures traded on the NYMEX within a GARCH framework augmented with market fundamentals. Consistent with the previous literature, we found that volatility is much higher on the natural gas and crude oil storage report announcement days, on Mondays and during winters. We also confirmed that high volatility is associated with divergence of storage levels and temperatures from seasonal norms. The asymmetric impact of storage levels on volatility across different seasons is empirically investigated and documented. The mainstream finding in the literature that lower storage levels result in higher volatility is valid only during winter. At other times, it is actually higher storage levels causing higher volatility. Also, time to maturity effect is present only in winters. Additionally, weather shocks have asymmetric impact on volatility depending on the sign of the shock. Finally, we found that augmentation with market fundamentals improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of standard GARCH models.

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  • Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:64-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.022
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    Cited by:

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    4. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2021. "Modeling and Estimating Volatility of Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-11, March.
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    6. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yanghuiting, 2018. "Testing Co-Volatility spillovers for natural gas spot, futures and ETF spot using dynamic conditional covariances," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 984-997.
    7. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Guesmi, Khaled, 2022. "How do financial and commodity markets volatility react to real economic activity?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    8. Yanting Chen & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2023. "Temperature, storage, and natural gas futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 549-575, April.
    9. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "What drives volatility in natural gas prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 731-742.
    10. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    11. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2022. "Modeling Electricity Price Dynamics Using Flexible Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    13. Luo, Keyu & Guo, Qiang & Li, Xiafei, 2022. "Can the return connectedness indices from grey energy to natural gas help to forecast the natural gas returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Goodell, John W. & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Gozgor, Giray, 2024. "Impact of climate risk shocks on global food and agricultural markets: A multiscale and tail connectedness analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Huang, Zhouchun & Zheng, Qipeng Phil, 2020. "A multistage stochastic programming approach for preventive maintenance scheduling of GENCOs with natural gas contract," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 1036-1051.
    16. Chao Liang & Feng Ma & Lu Wang & Qing Zeng, 2021. "The information content of uncertainty indices for natural gas futures volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1310-1324, November.
    17. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
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    19. Gong, Xue & Ye, Xin & Zhang, Weiguo & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Predicting energy futures high-frequency volatility using technical indicators: The role of interaction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas futures; GARCH; Price volatility; Storage; Weather; Asymmetric volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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