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Analyst forecasts and price discovery in futures markets: The case of natural gas storage

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  • Gerald D. Gay
  • Betty J. Simkins
  • Marian Turac

Abstract

We investigate analyst forecasts in a unique setting, the natural gas storage market, and study the contribution of analysts in facilitating price discovery in futures markets. Using a high‐frequency database of analyst storage forecasts, we show that the market appears to condition expectations regarding a weekly storage release on the analyst forecasts and beyond that of various statistical‐based models. Further, we find that the market looks through the reported consensus analyst forecast and places differential emphasis on the individual forecasts of analysts according to their prior accuracy. Also, the market appears to place greater emphasis on analysts' long‐term accuracy than on their recent accuracy. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:451–477, 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald D. Gay & Betty J. Simkins & Marian Turac, 2009. "Analyst forecasts and price discovery in futures markets: The case of natural gas storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 451-477, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:29:y:2009:i:5:p:451-477
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    Cited by:

    1. Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2024.
    2. Farhangdoost, Sara & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2020. "Time-Varying Storage Announcement Effect in Natural Gas Market," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304476, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Misund, Bård & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "Supply and demand determinants of natural gas price volatility in the U.K.: A vector autoregression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 178-189.
    4. Kurov, Alexander & Sancetta, Alessio & Strasser, Georg & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2019. "Price Drift Before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 449-479, February.
    5. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    6. Chen, Fan & Linn, Scott C., 2017. "Investment and operating choice: Oil and natural gas futures prices and drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-68.
    7. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    8. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
    9. Zhang, Yuan-Yuan & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2022. "The impact of institutional analyst forecast divergence on crude oil market: Evidence from the mixed frequency models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Yanting Chen & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2023. "Temperature, storage, and natural gas futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 549-575, April.
    11. Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen & Robert Wichmann, 2021. "The Natural Gas Announcement Day Puzzle," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(2), pages 91-112, March.
    12. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Tianyang Wang & Jian Yang, 2018. "The impact of crude oil inventory announcements on prices: Evidence from derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 38-65, January.
    13. Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.
    14. Chen Gu & Alexander Kurov, 2018. "What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 1079-1096, September.
    15. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Valencia, Consuelo, 2021. "How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Sheng-Hung Chen & Wei-Hung Chen, 2023. "Asymmetric Effects of Prices and Storage on Rig Counts: Evidence from the US Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-25, August.
    17. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Chen, Sheng-Hung & Zhu, Zhen, 2020. "Natural gas price, market fundamentals and hedging effectiveness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 321-337.
    18. Bjursell, Johan & Gentle, James E. & Wang, George H.K., 2015. "Inventory announcements, jump dynamics, volatility and trading volume in U.S. energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 336-349.

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