IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea08/6084.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator

Author

Listed:
  • Karali, Berna
  • Dorfman, Jeffrey H.
  • Thurman, Walter N.

Abstract

We apply a new Bayesian approach to multiple-contract futures data to allow the inventory and time-to-delivery effects on volatility to vary across contracts. We find a varying negative relationship between lumber inventories and lumber futures price volatility. The inventory effect is smaller for the most recent contracts possibly due to increasing inventories over time. While this approach reveals the downward bias on the inventory effect introduced by restricting this parameter across contracts, it does not change the time-to-delivery effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H. & Thurman, Walter N., 2008. "Do Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects Vary Across Futures Contracts? Insights from a Smoothed Bayesian Estimator," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6084, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6084
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/6084/files/457966a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.6084?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koop, Gary & Tobias, Justin L., 2006. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference in smooth coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 283-315, September.
    2. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    4. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    5. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Isengildina, Olga, 2006. "The Value of USDA Situation and Outlook Information in Hog and Cattle Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    7. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1998. "Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rd4g3bk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    9. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    10. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berna Karali & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Walter N. Thurman, 2010. "Delivery horizon and grain market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 846-873, September.
    2. Xu, Kewei & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Xiao, 2021. "The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berna Karali & Walter N. Thurman, 2009. "Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(4), pages 421-436, July.
    2. Karali, Berna & Thurman, Walter N., 2008. "Volatility Persistence in Commodity Futures:Inventory and Time-to-Delivery Effects," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37612, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Berna Karali & Jeffrey H. Dorfman & Walter N. Thurman, 2010. "Delivery horizon and grain market volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(9), pages 846-873, September.
    4. Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    5. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    6. Adjemian, Michael K. & Johansson, Robert & McKenzie, Andrew & Thomsen, Michael, 2016. "The Value of Government Information in an Era of Declining Budgets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235811, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Nowak, Sylwia & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "How does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-38.
    8. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    9. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Cao, Xiang & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H. & Adjemian, Michael & Johansson, Robert C., 2021. "When does USDA information have the most impact on crop and livestock markets?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    10. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Sanjay Ramchander & Marc Simpson & Mukesh Chaudhry, 2003. "The impact of inflationary news on money market yields and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 85-101, March.
    12. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers hal-01460186, HAL.
    13. Rousse, Olivier & Sévi, Benoît, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," ESP: Energy Scenarios and Policy 249788, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "The Reaction of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets to USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142491, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Zhang, Nan & Mei, Bin & Li, Yanshu, 2023. "A review of the financial performance of lumber futures and some prospects," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Barbara Będowska-Sójka, 2010. "Intraday CAC40, DAX and WIG20 returns when the American macro news is announced," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 41(2), pages 7-20.
    19. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
    20. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.