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Speculative Carryover: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Refined Copper Market

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  • Walter N. Thurman

Abstract

This article develops and estimates an empirically tractable model of equilibrium storage. The method bridges the gap between theoretical rational expectations models and applied commodity market work. The application to the U.S. refined copper market provides estimates of structural supply and demand, rational price forecasts, and the risk of copper storage that is consistent with modern portfolio theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter N. Thurman, 1988. "Speculative Carryover: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Refined Copper Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(3), pages 420-437, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:19:y:1988:i:autumn:p:420-437
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "Scarcity rents and the returns to mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-49, March.
    3. Michael Pedersen, 2015. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks in a Major Producing Economy. The Case of Copper and Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 753, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Ye, Shiyu & Karali, Berna, 2016. "The informational content of inventory announcements: Intraday evidence from crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 349-364.
    5. Sayeh Shojaeinia, 2023. "Metal market analysis: an empirical model for copper supply and demand in US market," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 509-517, September.
    6. Ergen, Ibrahim & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2016. "Asymmetric impacts of fundamentals on the natural gas futures volatility: An augmented GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-74.
    7. Ye, Michael & Zyren, John & Shore, Joanne, 2006. "Forecasting short-run crude oil price using high- and low-inventory variables," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2736-2743, November.
    8. Michael Pedersen, 2019. "The impact of commodity price shocks in a copper-rich economy: the case of Chile," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1291-1318, October.
    9. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore, 2002. "Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(4), pages 324-333, November.

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