IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20302.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • David I. Levine
  • Dean Yang

Abstract

We estimate the impact of weather variation on agricultural output in Indonesia by examining the impact of local rainfall shocks on rice output at the district level. Our analysis makes use of local meteorological data on rainfall in combination with government administrative data on district-level rice output in the 1990s. We find that deviations from mean local rainfall are positively associated with district-level rice output. 10% higher rainfall leads metric tons of rice output to be 0.4% higher on average. The impact of rainfall on rice output occurs contemporaneously (in the same calendar year), rather than with a lag. These results suggest that researchers should be justified in interpreting higher rainfall as a positive contemporaneous shock to local economic conditions in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Levine & Dean Yang, 2014. "The Impact of Rainfall on Rice Output in Indonesia," NBER Working Papers 20302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20302
    Note: DEV
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20302.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    2. Mariano Rabassa & Emmanuel Skoufias & Hanan Jacoby, 2014. "Weather and Child Health in Rural Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(4), pages 464-492.
    3. David Newhouse, 2005. "The Persistence of Income Shocks: Evidence from Rural Indonesia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 415-433, August.
    4. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Vinha, Katja, 2012. "Climate variability and child height in rural Mexico," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 54-73.
    5. Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith & Duncan Thomas, 2003. "Economic Shocks, Wealth, and Welfare," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(2).
    6. Thuan Q. Thai & Evangelos M. Falaris, 2014. "Child Schooling, Child Health, and Rainfall Shocks: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 1025-1037, July.
    7. Janet Currie & Tom Vogl, 2013. "Early-Life Health and Adult Circumstance in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 1-36, May.
    8. Ampaabeng, Samuel K. & Tan, Chih Ming, 2013. "The long-term cognitive consequences of early childhood malnutrition: The case of famine in Ghana," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1013-1027.
    9. Bruckner, Tim A. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Smith, Kirk R. & Catalano, Ralph A., 2014. "Ambient temperature during gestation and cold-related adult mortality in a Swedish cohort, 1915–2002," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 191-197.
    10. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    11. Datar, Ashlesha & Liu, Jenny & Linnemayr, Sebastian & Stecher, Chad, 2013. "The impact of natural disasters on child health and investments in rural India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 83-91.
    12. Ashlesha Datar & Jenny Liu & Sebastian Linnemayr & Chad Stecher, 2011. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Child Health and Investments in Rural India," Working Papers 886, RAND Corporation.
    13. Futoshi Yamauchi, 2012. "Prenatal Seasonality, Child Growth, and Schooling Investments: Evidence from Rural Indonesia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 1323-1341, September.
    14. Richard Akresh & Philip Verwimp & Tom Bundervoet, 2011. "Civil War, Crop Failure, and Child Stunting in Rwanda," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 777-810.
    15. Robert Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 399-404, May.
    16. Elaina Rose, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing and Excess Female Mortality in Rural India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 41-49, February.
    17. Catherine Porter, 2012. "Shocks, Consumption and Income Diversification in Rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(9), pages 1209-1222, September.
    18. repec:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:4:p:409-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Edward Miguel, 2005. "Poverty and Witch Killing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1153-1172.
    20. Sotomayor, Orlando, 2013. "Fetal and infant origins of diabetes and ill health: Evidence from Puerto Rico's 1928 and 1932 hurricanes," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 281-293.
    21. John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2001. "Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-436, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Islam, Asif & Hyland, Marie, 2019. "The drivers and impacts of water infrastructure reliability – a global analysis of manufacturing firms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 143-157.
    2. Osei, Edward & Jafri, Syed H., 2017. "Climate Change impacts on Corn and Soybean Production in Iowa," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258348, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Andrea Cinque & Lennart Reiners, 2022. "Confined to Stay: Natural Disasters and Indonesia's Migration Ban," CESifo Working Paper Series 9837, CESifo.
    4. Yaumidin, Umi Karomah, 2020. "Farmers’ responses to unexpected weather variability in developing countries: The case of Indonesia," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305233, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Tushar Bharati & Seungwoo Chin & Dawoon Jung, 2020. "Recovery from an Early-Life Shock through Improved Access to Schools," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Kaori Tembata & Kenji Takeuchi, 2018. "The Impact Of Climate Variability On Drought Management: Evidence From Japanese River Basins," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(04), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Tasso Adamopoulos & Diego Restuccia, 2022. "Geography and Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Plot-Level Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1629-1653.
    8. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    9. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
    10. Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy & Lora Kryz Baje, 2019. "When It Rains, It Pours? Analyzing the Rainfall Shocks-Poverty Nexus in the Philippines," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 67-93, August.
    11. Cornelius Christian & Lukas Hensel & Christopher Roth, 2019. "Income Shocks and Suicides: Causal Evidence From Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 905-920, December.
    12. Sellers, Samuel & Gray, Clark, 2019. "Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 357-369.
    13. Edward Osei & Syed H. Jafri & Ali Saleh & Philip W. Gassman & Oscar Gallego, 2023. "Simulated Climate Change Impacts on Corn and Soybean Yields in Buchanan County, Iowa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fitz, Dylan & League, Riley, 2020. "The impact of early-life shocks on adult welfare in Brazil: Questions of measurement and timing," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Richard Akresh, 2016. "Climate Change, Conflict, and Children," HiCN Working Papers 221, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Darrouzet-Nardi, Amelia & Masters, William A., 2014. "Market access and child nutrition in a conflict environment," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170286, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Andalón, Mabel & Azevedo, João Pedro & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Sanfelice, Viviane & Valderrama-González, Daniel, 2016. "Weather Shocks and Health at Birth in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 69-82.
    5. Palacios, Paola & Rojas-Velásquez, Libardo, 2023. "Impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in the municipalities of Colombia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Groppo, Valeria & Kraehnert, Kati, 2016. "Extreme Weather Events and Child Height: Evidence from Mongolia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 59-78.
    7. Chang, Grace & Favara, Marta & Novella, Rafael, 2022. "The origins of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills: The long-term effect of in-utero rainfall shocks in India," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    8. Darrouzet-Nardi, Amelia & Masters, William, 2015. "Nutrition smoothing: Can access to towns and cities protect children against poor health conditions at birth?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211558, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Díaz, Juan-José & Saldarriaga, Victor, 2023. "A drop of love? Rainfall shocks and spousal abuse: Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Sivadasan, Jagadeesh & Xu, Wenjian, 2021. "Missing women in India: Gender-specific effects of early-life rainfall shocks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Eskander, Shaikh M.S.U. & Barbier, Edward B., 2022. "Long-term impacts of the 1970 cyclone in Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    12. Mulmi, Prajula & Block, Steven A. & Shively, Gerald E. & Masters, William A., 2016. "Climatic conditions and child height: Sex-specific vulnerability and the protective effects of sanitation and food markets in Nepal," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 63-75.
    13. Lohmann, Steffen & Lechtenfeld, Tobias, 2015. "The Effect of Drought on Health Outcomes and Health Expenditures in Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 432-448.
    14. Olukorede Abiona, 2017. "Adverse Effects of Early Life Extreme Precipitation Shocks on Short-term Health and Adulthood Welfare Outcomes," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 1229-1254, November.
    15. Aparajita Dasgupta & Anahita Karandikar, 2021. "Gender-Gap in Learning Outcomes under Rainfall Shocks: The Role of Gender Norms," Working Papers 70, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    16. Elsa Valli, 2017. "Essays on social protection," Economics PhD Theses 1017, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    17. Alejandro de la Fuente, 2007. "Climate Shocks and their Impact on Assets," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-23, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    18. Haile, Kaleab & Tirivayi, Nyasha & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2019. "Climate shocks, coping responses and gender gap in human development," MERIT Working Papers 2019-052, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Waage Skjeflo, Sofie & Bruvik Westberg, Nina, 2014. "Learning the hard way? Adapting to climate risk in Tanzania," CLTS Working Papers 4/14, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies, revised 10 Oct 2019.
    20. Akresh, Richard & Caruso, German Daniel & Thirumurthy, Harsha, 2022. "Detailed geographic information, conflict exposure, and health impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.