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Modelling the effects of climate variability on spring wheat productivity in the steppe zone of Russia and Kazakhstan

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  • Pavlova, Vera N.
  • Varcheva, Svetlana E.
  • Bokusheva, Raushan
  • Calanca, Pierluigi

Abstract

Spring wheat is the principal crop in the steppe zone of Russia and Kazakhstan, but wheat productivity levels are currently low and susceptible to weather and climate anomalies. Water scarcity during the growing season represents a major stress factor and is expected to negatively affect wheat production in the future as well. In this paper we present a simple mechanistic model for assessing the impact of climate variability on spring wheat productivity in the steppe zone of Russia and Kazakhstan. The novel aspect of the model development is represented by the adoption of an adaptive approach for the formulation of growth partitioning. In spite of simplifying assumptions the model is shown to satisfactorily reproduce yield levels observed both at the local scale under controlled conditions as well as at the regional scale. The model is able to capture a significant percentage of the observed year-to-year variability of wheat yields. Results of the model application indicate that, for the steppe zone of Russia and Kazakhstan, seasonal water shortage is likely to cause yield deficits of 20–25%, with deficits of up to 40% in extreme years, and an increase in the coefficient of variation of yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlova, Vera N. & Varcheva, Svetlana E. & Bokusheva, Raushan & Calanca, Pierluigi, 2014. "Modelling the effects of climate variability on spring wheat productivity in the steppe zone of Russia and Kazakhstan," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 277(C), pages 57-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:277:y:2014:i:c:p:57-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Ponkina, Elena & Sun, Zhanli & Müller, Daniel, 2019. "Revealing the determinants of wheat yields in the Siberian breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian networks," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 21-31.
    2. Danmeng Wang & Guoxi Gao & Ruolan Li & Shynggys Toktarbek & Nueryia Jiakula & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Limiting Factors and Environmental Adaptability for Staple Crops in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Li, Zhi & Fang, Gonghuan & Chen, Yaning & Duan, Weili & Mukanov, Yerbolat, 2020. "Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Belyaeva, Maria & Bokusheva, Raushan, 2017. "Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach," IAMO Discussion Papers 253788, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    5. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    6. Danmeng Wang & Ruolan Li & Guoxi Gao & Nueryia Jiakula & Shynggys Toktarbek & Shilin Li & Ping Ma & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Impact of Climate Change on Food Security in Kazakhstan," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, July.
    7. repec:zbw:iamodp:253788 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Muratbek Baglan & Gershom Endelani Mwalupaso & Xue Zhou & Xianhui Geng, 2020. "Towards Cleaner Production: Certified Seed Adoption and Its Effect on Technical Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, February.
    9. Prishchepov, Alexander & Ponkina, Elena & Sun, Zhanli & Müller, Daniel, 2019. "Выявление Детерминант Урожайности Пшеницы В Западной Сибири С Использованием Байесовских Сетей [Revealing the Determinants of Wheat Yields in the Siberian Breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian Networ," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 39-83.
    10. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.
    11. Belyaeva, Maria & Bokusheva, Raushan, 2017. "Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach [Wird der Klimawandel der russischen Getreideproduktion nutzen oder schaden? Statistische ," IAMO Discussion Papers 161, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).

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