Exploring the consequence of ecological and agronomic determinants on wheat production instabilities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: Perspectives from dynamic autoregressive distributed lag analysis

One of the major obstacles to agriculture is global climate change, which damages crop productivity through increasing temperatures and irregular precipitation patterns. Wheat, one of the most vital staple crops in the world, is particularly susceptible to these weather Therefore, understanding the fundamental relationship between wheat yield and climate is critical in developing effective adaptation and mitigation plans. The study aims to determine how unirrigated wheat yield evolves depending on the temperature, humidity, rainfall, rainfed areas, and fertilizer in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The Kripfganz method was used for p-value calculation, and the DYNARDL simulation model and the autoregressive distributed lag bound testing were used to analyze data from the Development Statistics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Pakistan Meteorological Department. Unit root analysis was used to check the stationarity of the time series. Then, DYARDL-bound Testing was used for long-run cointegration analysis among variables. The short-run influence of precipitation is substantial, but the long-run impact is not. Meanwhile, the use of chemical fertilizers does not influence yields in either the short or long run. In addition, neither short-run nor long-run yields are statistically significantly connected with the highest temperature. The DYNARDL simulation model reveals precipitation, rainfed-area, and fertilization shocks in the long and short run. The 10 % positive and negative shocks in DYNARDL simulations are supplemented with graphical interpretations of the impact on yield. The study results may have significant implications for policymakers and management professionals in the agriculture sector in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.These findings can inform the development of strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat yields, ultimately enhancing food security and agricultural sustainability in the region.