IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v231y2023ics0165176523003221.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative

Author

Listed:
  • Goyal, Raghav
  • Steinbach, Sandro

Abstract

This paper studies the futures market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Event study estimates indicate that futures prices for agricultural commodities were 16% above the counterfactual within the first nine weeks after the invasion. The dynamic treatment estimates also show that futures prices began to recede after the EU Solidarity Lanes were established in May 2022. The Black Sea Grain Initiative did little to change the perception of agricultural commodity traders regarding the futures market uncertainty caused by the Russia–Ukraine war. Our ex-ante estimates challenge the prevailing narrative that the Black Sea Grain Initiative was critical in lowering prices for agricultural commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Goyal, Raghav & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003221
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523003221
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111297?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jorge Perez Perez & Jesse Shapiro, 2021. "Visualization, Identification, and stimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design," Working Papers 21-44, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2019. "Pre-event Trends in the Panel Event-Study Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(9), pages 3307-3338, September.
    3. Karali, Berna & Thurman, Walter N., 2010. "Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    5. Bailey, Warren & Chang, K C, 1993. "Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 555-573, June.
    6. Dieter Hess & He Huang & Alexandra Niessen, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 22(2), pages 127-146, June.
    7. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
    8. Xiaoli L. Etienne & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2015. "Price Explosiveness, Speculation, and Grain Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 65-87.
    9. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    10. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    11. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2021. "The 2019 government shutdown increased uncertainty in major agricultural commodity markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    13. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    14. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach & Xiting Zhuang, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and containerized agricultural exports from California ports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1051-1071, June.
    15. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
    16. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    17. Jonathan Roth, 2022. "Pretest with Caution: Event-Study Estimates after Testing for Parallel Trends," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 305-322, September.
    18. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    19. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Did Grain Futures Prices Overreact to the Russia-Ukraine War?," MPRA Paper 118248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2019. "Simultaneous confidence bands: Theory, implementation, and an application to SVARs," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 1-17, January.
    22. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    23. Soojung Ahn & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 trade measures on agricultural and food trade," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 911-927, June.
    24. Hess, Dieter E. & Huang, He & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra, 2008. "How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?," CFR Working Papers 08-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Tianyun & Hu, Zhepeng, 2024. "Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Bubbles and Contributing Factors: Evidence from the Chinese Urea Fertilizer Market," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343535, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Ichim Alexandru-Mihăiță, 2024. "An Empirical Analysis of the European Union's Economy and Politics in the Context of the War in Ukraine," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 482-493.
    3. Sandro Steinbach & Yasin Yildirim, 2024. "Agricultural commodity market response to Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 1004-1016, September.
    4. Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sheng, Lin Wen & Park, Donghyun & Zhu, Xuening, 2024. "Volatility dynamics of agricultural futures markets under uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Countryman, Amanda M. & Litvinov, Valentyn & Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan & Bogonos, Mariia & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2023. "Global Economic Effects of War-Induced Agricultural Export Declines from Ukraine," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339542, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Sandro Steinbach & Yasin Yildirim, 2024. "Agricultural commodity market response to Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(3), pages 1004-1016, September.
    3. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    4. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    5. repec:ags:aaea22:335476 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rigoberto Lopez & Keenan Marchesi & Sandro Steinbach, 2024. "Dollar store expansion and independent grocery retailer contraction," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 514-533, June.
    9. repec:ags:aaea22:335481 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Arne Henningsen & Guy Low & David Wuepper & Tobias Dalhaus & Hugo Storm & Dagim Belay & Stefan Hirsch, 2024. "Estimating Causal Effects with Observational Data: Guidelines for Agricultural and Applied Economists," IFRO Working Paper 2024/03, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    11. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    12. Pérez, Jorge & Vial, Felipe & Zárate, Román, 2022. "Urban Transit Infrastructure: Spatial Mismatch and Labor Market Power," Research Department working papers 1992, CAF Development Bank Of Latinamerica.
    13. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    14. Nilsen, Øivind A. & Raknerud, Arvid, 2024. "Dynamics of first-time patenting firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(8).
    15. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "COVID-19 Trade Actions and Their Impact on the Agricultural and Food Sector," 2023 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2023, New Orleans, Louisiana 316789, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian B. Hansen & Jorge Pérez Pérez & Jesse M. Shapiro & Constantino Carreto, 2024. "Policy Effect Estimation and Visualization in Linear Panel Event-Study Designs: Introducing the xtevent Package," Working Papers 2024-09, Banco de México.
    17. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Economic news and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    18. Andrea Ciaccio, 2023. "The Impact of a Cost-containment Measure on the Quality of Regional Health Services in Italy: a Parametric and a Non-parametric Approach," Working Papers 2023: 24, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    19. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    20. Colin A. Carter & Sandro Steinbach & Xiting Zhuang, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and containerized agricultural exports from California ports," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1051-1071, June.
    21. Chu, Ziyan & Zhou, Yichen Christy, 2023. "The effect of adopting the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) on air travel performance," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    22. Riveros-Gavilanes, J. M., 2023. "A simple test of parallel pre-trends for Differences-in-Differences," MPRA Paper 119367, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2023.
    23. Mateo Hoyos, 2024. "Tariffs and Growth: Heterogeneity by Economic Structure," Working Papers DTE 638, CIDE, División de Economía.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian invasion of Ukraine; Black Sea Grain Initiative; Agricultural commodities; Futures price; Historical volatility; Event studies; Counterfactual evaluation; Commodity heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:231:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.