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Skew index: Descriptive analysis, predictive power, and short-term forecast

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  • Mora-Valencia, Andrés
  • Rodríguez-Raga, Santiago
  • Vanegas, Esteban

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of the Chicago Board Options Exchange® Skew Index, which is calculated using the S&P 500’s tail risk price, specifically from the Out-of-The-Money option prices. The Skew Index seems to reveal salient information for expected financial downturns. The paper introduces main descriptive statistics for this index, scarcely studied in the literature, on monthly basis from January 1990 to December 2018. The predictive capacity of the Skew Index together with other proposed fear indices is analyzed for the S&P 500 index, and finally, various ARIMA-GARCH models are employed to test the forecasting power of the Skew Index. Our results show that the Skew Index seems to be an adequate indicator as a fear index and that the MA(4)-EGARCH(1,3) specification is an appropriate model to forecast the monthly observations of the Skew Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Rodríguez-Raga, Santiago & Vanegas, Esteban, 2021. "Skew index: Descriptive analysis, predictive power, and short-term forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820302370
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101356
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    Cited by:

    1. Campisi, Giovanni & Muzzioli, Silvia & De Baets, Bernard, 2024. "A comparison of machine learning methods for predicting the direction of the US stock market on the basis of volatility indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 869-880.
    2. Esteban Vanegas & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2025. "Skew Index: a machine learning forecasting approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(1), pages 1-60, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Skew Index; VIX; Fear index; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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