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Are Islamic stock indexes exposed to systemic risk? Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR

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  • Trabelsi, Nader
  • Naifar, Nader

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to assess the exposure of Islamic stock indexes to systemic tail events. We use Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and Delta CoVaR measures as developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) and a sample of Islamic and conventional stock indexes, from various developed and emerging markets, during the period September 2005 to March 2015. The empirical results reveal that the systemic risk has a moderate adverse effect on Islamic indexes, with a lower level in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC hereafter). The findings also show the Asian stock indexes can be considered as effective hedge assets, after the global financial crisis (GFC hereafter). Furthermore, the empirical reveal that portfolio including Islamic stock indexes performs better than a benchmark portfolio in turmoil periods. These findings have several implications in financial decisions including the strategy of stability and asset allocation.

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  • Trabelsi, Nader & Naifar, Nader, 2017. "Are Islamic stock indexes exposed to systemic risk? Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 727-744.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:727-744
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.013
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    10. Khamis Hamed Al‐Yahyaee & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Walid Mensi & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2021. "Is there a systemic risk between Sharia, Sukuk, and GCC stock markets? A ΔCoVaR risk metric‐based copula approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2904-2926, April.
    11. Wei, Zhengyuan & He, Qingxia & Zhou, Qili & Wang, Ge, 2023. "Measuring dependence structure and extreme risk spillovers in stock markets: An APARCH-EVT-DMC approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
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    13. Nader Trabelsi, 2018. "Are There Any Volatility Spill-Over Effects among Cryptocurrencies and Widely Traded Asset Classes?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, October.
    14. Mongi Arfaoui & Bechir Raggad, 2023. "Do Dow Jones Islamic equity indices undergo speculative pressure? New insights from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1582-1601, April.
    15. Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Rodríguez-Raga, Santiago & Vanegas, Esteban, 2021. "Skew index: Descriptive analysis, predictive power, and short-term forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    16. Sahabuddin, Mohammad & Muhammad, Junaina & Yahya, Mohamed Hisham & Mohammed Shah, Sabarina, 2020. "Co-movements between Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets: An Empirical Evidence," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(3), pages 27-40.
    17. Zulu, Thulani & Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2023. "Assessing the contribution of South African Insurance Firms to Systemic Risk," MPRA Paper 116815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Usman, Muhammad & Umar, Zaghum & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "Quantifying endogenous and exogenous shocks to financial sector systemic risk: A comparison of GFC and COVID-19," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 281-293.
    19. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Trichilli, Yousra & Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène & Masmoudi, Afif, 2020. "Islamic and conventional portfolios optimization under investor sentiment states: Bayesian vs Markowitz portfolio analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    21. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi & Wael Louhichi, 2022. "Measuring extreme risk dependence between the oil and gas markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 755-772, June.
    22. Delle Foglie, Andrea & Panetta, Ida Claudia, 2020. "Islamic stock market versus conventional: Are islamic investing a ‘Safe Haven’ for investors? A systematic literature review," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; CoVaR; Islamic stock indexes; Hedging strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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