IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v42y2017icp727-744.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are Islamic stock indexes exposed to systemic risk? Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR

Author

Listed:
  • Trabelsi, Nader
  • Naifar, Nader

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to assess the exposure of Islamic stock indexes to systemic tail events. We use Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and Delta CoVaR measures as developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) and a sample of Islamic and conventional stock indexes, from various developed and emerging markets, during the period September 2005 to March 2015. The empirical results reveal that the systemic risk has a moderate adverse effect on Islamic indexes, with a lower level in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC hereafter). The findings also show the Asian stock indexes can be considered as effective hedge assets, after the global financial crisis (GFC hereafter). Furthermore, the empirical reveal that portfolio including Islamic stock indexes performs better than a benchmark portfolio in turmoil periods. These findings have several implications in financial decisions including the strategy of stability and asset allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Trabelsi, Nader & Naifar, Nader, 2017. "Are Islamic stock indexes exposed to systemic risk? Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 727-744.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:727-744
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531916303567
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:1030 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Kohonen, Anssi, 2013. "On detection of volatility spillovers in overlapping stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-158.
    5. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Naifar, Nader & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Islamic financial markets and global crises: Contagion or decoupling?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 36-46.
    6. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    7. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    8. Chen Zhou, 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail? Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 205-250, December.
    9. Khawla Bourkhis & Mahmoud Sami Nabi, 2013. "Islamic and conventional banks' soundness during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 68-77, April.
    10. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela Ben, 2015. "Co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the GCC markets: A time-frequency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 69-79.
    11. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela ben, 2015. "Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 311-329.
    12. Girardi, Giulio & Tolga Ergün, A., 2013. "Systemic risk measurement: Multivariate GARCH estimation of CoVaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3169-3180.
    13. repec:lan:wpaper:601084 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Asli Demirguk-Kunt & Thorsten Beck & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Islamic Banking versus Conventional Banking: Business model, Efficiency, and Stability," Post-Print hal-01638080, HAL.
    15. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Nistor, Simona, 2016. "Systemic risk, corporate governance and regulation of banks across emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 59-63.
    16. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Arfaoui, Mongi, 2016. "Financial market interdependencies: A quantile regression analysis of volatility spillover," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 140-157.
    17. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Pop, Adrian, 2015. "Risk and ethical investment: Empirical evidence from Dow Jones Islamic indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 33-56.
    18. Dawood Ashraf, 2016. "Does Shari’ah Screening Cause Abnormal Returns? Empirical Evidence from Islamic Equity Indices," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 134(2), pages 209-228, March.
    19. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2015. "Risk-return characteristics of Islamic equity indices: Multi-timescales analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 115-138.
    20. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Systemic risk in European sovereign debt markets: A CoVaR-copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-244.
    21. Iqbal, Jamshed & Strobl, Sascha & Vähämaa, Sami, 2015. "Corporate governance and the systemic risk of financial institutions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 42-61.
    22. Aldrin Herwany & Erie Febrian, 2013. "Global Stock Price Linkages Around The Us Financial Crisis: Evidence From Indonesia," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(5), pages 35-45.
    23. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    24. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Arshad, Shaista & Alam, Nafis, 2015. "Crises and contagion in Asia Pacific — Islamic v/s conventional markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 315-326.
    25. Beck, Thorsten & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2013. "Islamic vs. conventional banking: Business model, efficiency and stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 433-447.
    26. Ho, Catherine Soke Fun & Abd Rahman, Nurul Afiqah & Yusuf, Noor Hafizha Muhamad & Zamzamin, Zaminor, 2014. "Performance of global Islamic versus conventional share indices: International evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 110-121.
    27. Merdad, Hesham Jamil & Kabir Hassan, M. & Hippler, William J., 2015. "The Islamic risk factor in expected stock returns: an empirical study in Saudi Arabia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-314.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eman F. Attia & Sharihan Mohamed Aly & Ahmed said ElRawas & Ebtehal Orabi Awad, 2023. "Portfolio diversification benefits before and during the times of COVID-19: evidence from USA," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Karim, Muhammad Mahmudul & Kawsar, Najmul Haque & Ariff, Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2022. "Does implied volatility (or fear index) affect Islamic stock returns and conventional stock returns differently? Wavelet-based granger-causality, asymmetric quantile regression and NARDL approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Faisal Alqahtani & Nader Trabelsi & Nahla Samargandi & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Tail Dependence and Risk Spillover from the US to GCC Banking Sectors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-18, November.
    4. Ardhiani Fadila & Dewi Cahyani Pangestuti, 2022. "Examining the Effect of Economic Collison: Case On Credit Performance in Islamic Banking," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(1), pages 132-145, January.
    5. Dharani, M. & Hassan, M. Kabir & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2019. "Faith-based norms and portfolio performance: Evidence from India," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 79-89.
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Usman, Muhammad & Choi, Sun-Yong & Rice, John, 2023. "Diversification benefits of NFTs for conventional asset investors: Evidence from CoVaR with higher moments and optimal hedge ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Zhang, Xiaoming & Wei, Chunyan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Tian, Yiming, 2023. "Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Zhu, Xiaonan & Chen, Yu & Hu, Jie, 2024. "Estimation of banded time-varying precision matrix based on SCAD and group lasso," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Muhammad Anas & Ghulam Mujtaba & Sadaf Nayyar & Saira Ashfaq, 2020. "Time-Frequency Based Dynamics of Decoupling or Integration between Islamic and Conventional Equity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-27, July.
    10. Zakaria Boulanouar & Ghassane Benrhmach & Rihab Grassa & Sonia Abdennadher & Mariam Aldhaheri, 2024. "Exploring the predictive power of artificial neural networks in linking global Islamic indices with a local Islamic index," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Khamis Hamed Al‐Yahyaee & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Walid Mensi & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2021. "Is there a systemic risk between Sharia, Sukuk, and GCC stock markets? A ΔCoVaR risk metric‐based copula approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2904-2926, April.
    12. Wei, Zhengyuan & He, Qingxia & Zhou, Qili & Wang, Ge, 2023. "Measuring dependence structure and extreme risk spillovers in stock markets: An APARCH-EVT-DMC approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    13. Rida Ahroum & Boujemâa Achchab, 2021. "Harvesting Islamic risk premium with long–short strategies: A time scale decomposition using the wavelet theory," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 430-444, January.
    14. Nader Trabelsi, 2018. "Are There Any Volatility Spill-Over Effects among Cryptocurrencies and Widely Traded Asset Classes?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Mongi Arfaoui & Bechir Raggad, 2023. "Do Dow Jones Islamic equity indices undergo speculative pressure? New insights from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1582-1601, April.
    16. Mora-Valencia, Andrés & Rodríguez-Raga, Santiago & Vanegas, Esteban, 2021. "Skew index: Descriptive analysis, predictive power, and short-term forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Sahabuddin, Mohammad & Muhammad, Junaina & Yahya, Mohamed Hisham & Mohammed Shah, Sabarina, 2020. "Co-movements between Islamic and Conventional Stock Markets: An Empirical Evidence," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(3), pages 27-40.
    18. Zulu, Thulani & Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2023. "Assessing the contribution of South African Insurance Firms to Systemic Risk," MPRA Paper 116815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Usman, Muhammad & Umar, Zaghum & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "Quantifying endogenous and exogenous shocks to financial sector systemic risk: A comparison of GFC and COVID-19," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 281-293.
    20. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    21. Trichilli, Yousra & Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène & Masmoudi, Afif, 2020. "Islamic and conventional portfolios optimization under investor sentiment states: Bayesian vs Markowitz portfolio analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    22. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi & Wael Louhichi, 2022. "Measuring extreme risk dependence between the oil and gas markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 755-772, June.
    23. Delle Foglie, Andrea & Panetta, Ida Claudia, 2020. "Islamic stock market versus conventional: Are islamic investing a ‘Safe Haven’ for investors? A systematic literature review," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Asghar, Nadia & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Do Islamic indices provide diversification to bitcoin? A time-varying copulas and value at risk application," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2019. "A survey of Islamic banking and finance literature: Issues, challenges and future directions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 484-496.
    3. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Zhu, Zhenzhen & El Khamlichi, Abdelbari & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Does the Shari’ah screening impact the gold-stock nexus? A sectorial analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 617-626.
    4. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Time-varying evidence of efficiency, decoupling, and diversification of conventional and Islamic stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 167-180.
    5. Haddad, Hedi Ben & Mezghani, Imed & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed, 2020. "Common shocks, common transmission mechanisms and time-varying connectedness among Dow Jones Islamic stock market indices and global risk factors," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    6. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    7. Azad, A.S.M.S. & Azmat, Saad & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Ahsan, Amirul, 2018. "Sailing with the non-conventional stocks when there is no place to hide," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yahya, Muhammad, 2022. "Systemic risk contribution of banks and non-bank financial institutions across frequencies: The Australian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Balli, Faruk & de Bruin, Anne & Chowdhury, Md Iftekhar Hasan, 2019. "Spillovers and the determinants in Islamic equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Alexakis, Christos & Kenourgios, Dimitris & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina, 2021. "From dotcom to Covid-19: A convergence analysis of Islamic investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Yousaf, Imran & Beljid, Makram & Chaibi, Anis & Ajlouni, Ahmed AL, 2022. "Do volatility spillover and hedging among GCC stock markets and global factors vary from normal to turbulent periods? Evidence from the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Saâdaoui, Foued & Naifar, Nader & Aldohaiman, Mohamed S., 2017. "Predictability and co-movement relationships between conventional and Islamic stock market indexes: A multiscale exploration using wavelets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 552-568.
    13. Hammami, Yacine & Oueslati, Abdelmonem, 2017. "Measuring skill in the Islamic mutual fund industry: Evidence from GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 15-31.
    14. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    15. Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2015. "Issues in Islamic banking and finance: Islamic banks, Shari’ah-compliant investment and sukuk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 185-191.
    16. Khan, Abdullah & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Ali, Mohsin & Haroon, Omair, 2021. "A survey of Islamic finance research – Influences and influencers," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Raza, Naveed & Ibrahimy, Ahmad & Ali, Azwadi, 2015. "Gold and Islamic Stocks: A Hedge and Safe Haven Comparison in Time - Grequency domain for BRICS," MPRA Paper 69366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Aktham Maghyereh & Basel Awartani & Abul Hassan, 2018. "Can gold be used as a hedge against the risks of Sharia-compliant securities? Application for Islamic portfolio management," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(6), pages 394-412, October.
    19. Trad, Naama & Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali & Goux, Jean François, 2017. "Risk And Profi Tability Of Islamic Banks: A Religious Deception Or An Alternative Solution?," European Research on Management and Business Economics (ERMBE), Academia Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (AEDEM), vol. 23(1), pages 40-45.
    20. Hassan, M. Kabir & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Sclip, Alex, 2018. "The determinants of co-movement dynamics between sukuk and conventional bonds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 73-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; CoVaR; Islamic stock indexes; Hedging strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:727-744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.