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Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union

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  • Beck, Krzysztof

Abstract

The application of various measures of business cycle synchronization indicates that business cycle divergence is a robust feature of GDP time series in the European Union. An analysis of the sources of the divergence has demonstrated that the determinants of business cycle comovement in economics literature cannot explain this situation. In contrast, they imply that the cycles should converge. An alternative cause of divergence is investigated at the sectoral level using the Bayesian dynamic factor model. The results reveal that, on average, 73 % of the international comovement is driven by sectoral factors, and the manufacturing sector is the main carrier of international business cycles. The unique standing of manufacturing can be attributed to the unparalleled extent of sectoral linkages in the sector. Consequently, business cycle divergence in the European Union could be caused by a rapid decrease in the share of the manufacturing sector and a growing share of services characterized by low intersectoral linkages.

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  • Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:133:y:2021:i:c:s0165188921001986
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104263
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    1. Azcona, Nestor, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 190-201.
    2. Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2024. "International trade fluctuations: Global versus regional factors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 331-358, February.
    3. Beck, Krzysztof & Yersh, Valeryia, 2024. "Economic integration and consumption risk sharing: A comparison of Eurozone and OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 784-803.
    4. Gandjon Fankem, Gislain Stéphane & Fouda Mbesa, Lucien Cédric, 2023. "Business cycle synchronization and African monetary union: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    6. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.

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