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A Note On The Business Cycle Implications Of Trade In Intermediate Goods

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  • Eyquem, Aurélien
  • Kamber, Güneş

Abstract

Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance explained by foreign shocks, lowers the exchange rate pass-through, and delivers a positive international correlation of outputs. In addition, the matching of other business cycle moments is at least as good as in a model with trade in final goods only.

Suggested Citation

  • Eyquem, Aurélien & Kamber, Güneş, 2014. "A Note On The Business Cycle Implications Of Trade In Intermediate Goods," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 1172-1186, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:05:p:1172-1186_00
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    3. Miles Parker, 2014. "How much of what New Zealanders consume is imported? Estimates from input-output tables," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
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    7. Drago Bergholt & Tommy Sveen, 2014. "Sectoral Interdependence and Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Open Economies," Working Papers No 2/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    8. Drago Bergholt, 2015. "Foreign Shocks," Working Papers No 11/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Energy Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    11. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Foreign shocks in an estimated multi-sector model," Working Papers No 4/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    12. William D. Craighead, 2020. "Intermediate Goods and Exchange Rate Disconnect," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 113-129, February.

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